Analysis of the situation with coronavirus and oil pricesContentsWhat wasOil was worth $65 a barrel. The Chinese economy was not very profitable and competitive, as China is one of the largest energy importers. Germany and France were in a similar position. American producers of shale oil were competitive and slowly, with the help of political pressure, "took over" the oil market, including the European one. The budget of Russia was surplus with sufficient funding for budget sectors. The Italian government, which had a huge foreign debt, was looking for a method to declare bankruptcy. Spain thought the same thing. People were mortal before. The number of deaths in the world in 2019 could not be found, but if the population of 7.7 billion people is divided by the average life expectancy of about 80 years, we get about 96 million deaths per year, or about 7 million deaths per month.
Black marks data from the Internet, blue italics - extrapolation 1In a number of countries, deaths from pneumonia are recorded in the “influenza” if the influenza was the cause of pneumonia complications. So, for example, they often do it in Italy. What happenedIn Wuhan (China), they found a new influenza virus that causes pneumonia. City isolated. About 3,000 out of 12,000,000 (0.025%) died, who exactly is not reported. The version about the political struggle of the Chinese elites is noteworthy. Allegedly, there is an "old party school" and "Komsomol members". The Komsomol members are mainly from Wuhan. Their leader, Li Keqiang, was supposedly supposed to be removed from the post of Prime Minister, after which they could expel everyone else. The Komsomol members allegedly released a fearless virus from the laboratory they controlled, and under this pretext eliminated the domestic political danger. At the same time, stopping the industry in this region, they conducted the information-psychological operation "China stops the economy", receiving a world oil price of $40, which is much more comfortable for the Chinese economy. But two more serious events took place.
As a result, the panic to reduce oil demand, first from China, and then the whole world, which limited air traffic and even auto traffic, was superimposed on a real decline in production as a result of quarantine introduced, caused by a panic spread of the virus, and a sharp increase in production by the largest oil exporters. The price of oil fell below $25. Where are we nowIn the world, a general panic attack on the virus. Governments introduced where the quarantines, where the emergency.
Black marks data from the Internet, blue italics - extrapolation 2In countries interested in negative statistics, the remaining diseases of the deceased are not indicated. Although older people have a huge bouquet of chronic diseases. Also released statistics on the causes of deaths in the world for the three months of 2020: 193 479 - accident At the same time, doctors themselves are often perplexed. In Italy, nearly 25,000 people died from flu complications during the 2016/2017 season. The main complication is pneumonia. The number of hospitalized is 10-15 times more. And there were no cries about trucks and a lack of fans. Igor Gundarov, doctor of medical sciences, professor, academician of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, specialist in the field of epidemiology and preventive medicine, described the mortality in Italy as normal, despite the situation with coronavirus. “Why did you decide that a lot of things got sick in the world? In Italy, there are approximately 60 million inhabitants, their mortality rate is 10 people per 1000, which means that 600 thousand people die every year in this country. Divided by 365 days a year, it turns out 1,700 people. This means that in Italy it is normal for 1,700 people to die every day. And how many are dying now? Not more. The news reports 600 people, 700, but from what specifically, which nosological units? The overall mortality rate in Italy has not changed, ”said the academician of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences. Igor Gundarov also compared with the play a lot of what is happening in Italy and the world in the wake of the coronavirus panic. The academician also noted that the media show how a military convoy of 30 cars is walking in the center of Rome - coffins are being taken! “I am absolutely sure,” says the scientist, “that not a single normal ruler will do that. Coffins with the dead are taken out at night!” It looks like a staged performance created just to scare the already frightened audience even more. Who benefits fromThe Chinese economy is operating at full strength and with cheap energy. It crowds out competitors in all markets, even in the market of over-deficient ventilation devices. Economies focused on energy imports, including in Europe, and especially in Germany and France, also feel not bad. Italy, as a state, can safely default. But now it’s not because of poor financial and economic management, but because of the coronavirus that killed the Italian tourism industry, which will lead to bankruptcies of banks and many enterprises serving tourism. Apparently, Spain will do the same. A group of US politicians use this reason for another attempt to remove Trump. Politicians of all countries remind the population that the state, and therefore politicians, are necessary to protect the population from threats. Some easy way to define terror as "intimidation of the population by the threat of physical destruction." But the destruction is not from the authorities, but from a obscure virus, if you do not follow the orders of the authorities. A new curious version of psychoterror. It is worth noting separately that data on the "catastrophic" danger of the coronovirus come from those places and at a time where it is beneficial. In China, it was beneficial for the “Komsomol members" to inflate hysteria - there was evidence of danger. They solved the problem of the possible removal from office of the head of the “Komsomol” - the virus was miraculously defeated, of course, by the forces of the “Komsomol”. In Italy and Spain, apparently, they will form a negative background and will not work until default. In Germany and France, they are forming a negative background with the goal of stopping all other economies, while they themselves continue to work against the backdrop of low energy prices. In the USA, the Clinton group will permanently “drive the wave”, slow down production, attributing these problems to the Trump group. Connecting clearly controlled territories such as Ukraine and Georgia. In Russia, the political background is obvious. Why at the same time it was necessary to create a banking panic, it is not yet clear. Of those countries that do not benefit from a drop in oil prices and at the same time there is no domestic political struggle, panic information is not coming. This is Sweden, Norway, Finland, Belarus Who is not profitableAmerican shale oil workers go bankrupt. Saudi and Russian oil producers suffer huge losses. What will happen nextIn the USAThe United States annually "loses thousands and thousands of people from the flu, but does not close the country". "Much more we lose in car accidents. But we don't call car manufacturers and don't ask us to stop making cars. Look, we can lose some people from the influenza. But we will lose more people if a severe recession or even depression begins. We will get thousands of suicides, we will get instability. You can't just take and close the United States of America", said Donald Trump. Bankruptcies of shale oil companies will reduce tax revenues. A general decline in production due to quarantine will reduce tax revenue. A general decline in production as a result of increased competitiveness on the part of China and Germany will reduce tax revenue. An increase in the number of unemployed will require budget expenditures and scare analysts. Investment in the economy of 2-6 trillion US dollars, coupled with the previously mentioned factors, will weaken both the US dollar itself and its credibility in international settlements and as reserves. In RussiaRussian budget structure  Optimistic scenario If the price of $25 dollars per barrel lasts only one month, and then becomes $40, then: 1) oil and gas budget revenues will be halved, 2) VAT on imports will decrease by no less than half, since a sharp decrease in the supply of currency in the market will cause a 2-3-fold increase in the dollar exchange rate. Accordingly, in order to keep social and security expenditures at an acceptable level, it will be necessary to spend $100-200 billion in domestic reserves (depending on the dollar exchange rate) But to raise the price of oil, it will be necessary to “convince” Saudi Arabia to lower oil production, which implies possible a sharp increase in tension in the Persian region, with a possible hot war in Iraq and even an attempt to break up of Saudi Arabia into the principalities. Neutral scenario If the price of $25 dollars per barrel lasts 2-3 months, and then becomes $40, then: 3) oil and gas budget revenues will be reduced by three times, 4) VAT from imports will decrease by no less than half, since a sharp decrease in the supply of foreign currency in the market will cause a sharp increase in the dollar exchange rate, comparable to the 1998 jump. Accordingly, to maintain an acceptable amount of social and security expenses, it will be necessary to spend $200-300 billion in domestic reserves (depending on the dollar exchange rate) But, also, to raise the price of oil, it will be necessary to “convince” Saudi Arabia to lower oil production, which implies a sharp increase in tension in the Persian region, with a possible hot war in Iraq and even the collapse of Saudi Arabia into principalities. In the banking system of the Russian Federation, a crisis of non-payments will begin. Banks will close the limits on counterparty banks. Banks with a classic credit model will lose up to 20% of capital, which will lead to a breach of capital adequacy in half of lending institutions. To restore the liquidity of the banking sector, the Central Bank will have to inject up to $100 billion into the economy, 90% of which will be received by “systemically important banks” (for comparison, the United States estimates the liquidity support package at $6 trillion now). Pessimistic scenario If the price of $25 dollars per barrel lasts until the end of the year, then: 1) oil and gas budget revenues can be completely forgotten, 2) VAT on imports will decrease by no less than three times, since a sharp decline in the supply of foreign currency in the market will cause a huge increase in the dollar, more than a "jump" in 1998 Accordingly, in order to keep social and security expenditures at an acceptable level, in addition to spending internal reserves in the amount of $300-400 billion (depending on the dollar), it will be necessary to find emergency sources of income, such as, for example, in 1991 " freezing ”deposits of the population. Banks with a classic credit model will lose up to 50% of capital, which will lead to a violation of capital adequacy in 90% of credit organizations. 200-300 banks out of 400 remaining will go bankrupt. To restore the liquidity of the banking sector, the Central Bank will be forced to inject up to $300 billion into the economy, 90% of which will be received by “systemically important banks”. The printing press will be turned on. Based on this logic, as soon as the Russian people vote for amendments to the Constitution, the coronavirus will miraculously end. But the problems in the economy will remain, and God forbid, not so big. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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