Risks and rewards arising from entrepreneurial intelligence

Lecturer: Andrey Gribov

We repeat what we have already said:

• Gaussian curve;
• Pareto principle 20/80;
• real picture of the world (adequate model of the environment);
• the ability to perceive a picture of the world (the ability to understand what is around us is an objective reality);
• They briefly discussed the ability to make a decision (not reading what they are trying to "inspire", namely, independent decision-making);
• languages of communication that arise as a result of the inequality of individuals;
• And let's at the same time write down the homework that I gave last time, which is for you for life: Plato "On the State";
• the occupation of Iran in 1941;
• the defeat of Guderian's army by General Belov;
• the share of logistics and distribution in the added value in the food industry;
• It was also a pleasant homework to listen to Zhvanetsky's "Patriot Monologue" in order to understand the language of the proletariat.

Homework:

Learn the Cossack language:

1. Write out catchphrases from Razgulnov's remarks in The Quiet Don.
2. An anecdote: a picture found in the Hermitage vaults called “Zaporizhzhya Cossacks discussing in what language to write a letter to the Turkish Sultan” caused a general sensation.
3. Read the letter of the Zaporozhye Cossacks to the Turkish Sultan. There, too, there are catchphrases that will help you in communicating not only with the Cossacks.

Darwin's theory

In addition to the Gauss law and the Pareto rule, there is a third rule that will always be with you. Like it or not, but it will always be with you. This is Darwin's theory of natural selection. Darwin wrote not only about natural selection, but also about sexual selection, which is worth remembering. After all, according to Darwin's law, we will also exist in human society.

By adding Darwin's theory to the Gaussian distribution, you will imagine how many of which individuals are among you. For example, there are 30 people here. This means that 6% of 30 - 2 people - will definitely be asocial. Someone will call on the phone, someone will talk to a neighbor. Gauss's theory cannot be altered, and it will be superimposed in exactly the same way on Darwin's theory. Accordingly, 2 people will be alpha males, alpha females here, who will “build” everyone.

Today I started the lecture by asking a student to close the door. I wanted to show some important feature that is in the theory. Darwin noted that the main feature of an individual for survival is aggressiveness. 2 people out of 30 will definitely differ from the general mass on the basis of "aggressiveness". This theory cannot be canceled, and it concerns not only the intellect - it concerns everything.

There will always be 6% of thieves among us. No matter how much property they have, they will still steal. There will always be 6% of antisocial personalities. 6% will steal, even if they have a trillion in their pocket, and 6% will not take someone else's property, even if they are dying of hunger.

These rules cannot be treated as theoretical rules. These are the rules of life. When you start to manage, you will have personnel, and in this personnel there will be 6% just "thieves", perhaps there will be 6% who will do something. For example, they turn off the fire alarm, and people die. And they will ask you. Or there will be an accountant who makes a mistake in accounting, and the director is responsible for accounting, and they will put you in jail, pay attention. This drawing is about your bright future: making money, and just to stay free, stay alive. These are the laws that cannot be repealed.

Recently there was a movie about McDonald's "The Founder" ("Founder") - right under the theory of Darwin. It shows that the McDonalds were smart, and Ray Kroc was aggressive. He figured out how to use aggression to pull the profits out of this business. And although he was given a small franchise, he figured out how to appropriate almost the entire business. This film shows that aggression is an integral part of success. If you want to achieve something in life, there must be aggressiveness.

It should be not only that you have to encroach on someone else's industry. For example, someone produces sneakers, and you come with your own chocolate bar. This is already aggression: you came to his market with your product.

First of all, it should be aimed at protecting its zone of influence. If someone encroached on your zone of influence, came to sell chocolates in your store, you must react aggressively enough, then you can survive. Otherwise, the competitor will simply sell chocolates in your store, and you will not have enough income to provide for your family, your children.

Laws of Carlo Chippolo

Carlo Chippolo is the first person who combined stupidity and aggressiveness in his law. An interesting thing, he wrote one thing, and then I synthesized another. People are really divided according to the set of qualities "mind-aggressiveness", something is, something is not.

Take the famous scientist Yablochkov, who invented the light bulb. But in America, no one knows him. Why? Yablochkov came up with a light bulb, reported at the symposium and calmed down. And Edison first made a light bulb, then conducted 3,000 experiments to select the optimal material for the incandescent filament so that it would shine longer, then he invented and made a transformer, a switch, a power source, and lit up the whole block. What is their difference? Both are smart, but Edison is also aggressive. He not only invented the light bulb, he wanted to introduce it so that people would get light. Therefore, a scientist is only the mind, and a businessman is both the mind and aggressiveness. Accordingly, if there is not enough intelligence, but there is aggressiveness, what is it? These are bandits. They are simply not smart enough to earn legally. True, at one time a number of groups, at least two I know, which back in 1992 decided that we no longer live in crime. I even remember one assistant of one of the groups, he says, we don’t insert a soldering iron in the ass anymore, we are now businessmen.

Therefore, a scientist is only the mind, and a businessman is both the mind and aggressiveness. If there is not enough intelligence, but there is aggressiveness, these are bandits. They are simply not smart enough to earn legally.

Important: a smart person and an entrepreneur are not the same thing. Let's look at the normal distribution of intellectual capital. In the intellectual capital of an entrepreneur, not only the mind. This is aggressive...

In my book, all these features are described: how to work with them, what to acquire. Here the intellectual capital includes a complex: the mind alone is not enough. Critical thinking for the correct construction of a model of the environment is a mandatory feature. Aggressiveness is firmness of spirit: you will not be aggressive, other aggressive people will come, and you will have less money, health, and they can take away your freedom or life.

Write down your homework: go to the Glavpivtorg restaurant for lunch, Lubyanka, 5. You need to go at one, two, on a weekday. Look at these people. And if you suddenly have doubts that you will owe something and will not be able to return, remember the faces of these people, and you will have no doubts that you can not give back or you can not sit down, or you can not die. People are imprisoned, there are many of them, they are organized, and if you suddenly do not have enough knowledge, intelligence, aggressiveness, fortitude, then you will be trampled on.

These are the laws of life, and no matter what, they will still exist. Only one thing is important: whether you want to remember them and live by them or not. It depends only on you whether you want to move somewhere, achieve something. I can say for sure: 6% of those present aggressively want to achieve something serious: to make a startup, a serious business, something else. The remaining 88% are ordinary people who do not want to achieve anything special. Whatever society we find ourselves in, the normal distribution cannot be denied.

What else is a normal distribution for? When you come across any criminal offenses, you will need to understand what falls into the "reasonable faults" section and what does not. Gaussian theory shows the same. It happens that people make mistakes. But there are such mistakes that do not fit into any reasonable framework.

Remember the story about 9 tons of gold, which we discussed with you, does not fit into the framework of a reasonable error. And how many of them were there: the pilots, the navigator, and the loaders... What did people think? Yes, nothing. So, they lost right at the airport. How did it happen? It's simple: the end of the quarter, people have to pay salaries. There is no money in the account. So, it is necessary to transfer the goods to the refinery in Krasnoyarsk. The specialized plane, which was supposed to carry gold, was broken. But how can people not pay a premium, and even before the elections it was. Do not pay people a bonus before the elections? What are you?! They will get it there in Siberia. Yakutia is nearby. I don't know where I can be exiled from Yakutia, but apparently I can. So what: take a plane - that AN-12, that AN-12, load it, can't you bring 9 tons? The financial director persuaded the general director, apparently, some security officials joined in, loaded it as it turned out and drove off. That's how it happened.

Perfectionism is when you wanted to do well, and then left it as it was.

This phenomenon will be with you all your life. There will always be people around who will live on it, because it is so convenient for them. Therefore, the obligatory quality of success is aggressiveness. And if there is no aggressive person nearby who will normally check how they loaded it, how they fixed it, then something will constantly fall out on the runway.

You, unfortunately, are not taught the right models in life. For example, in popular cartoons about Ilya Muromets, Zmey Gorynych, Alyosha Popovich, fantastic stupidity is initially laid down, that heroes do feats, and the prince only gets in the way under his feet. In fact, 3 heroes, gathered together, do not go to any feats. They are able to get drunk, fight and go on a self-propelled "for women." 3 heroes, gathered together, will not do any feats. In order for them to accomplish feats, a prince must be found somewhere, usually with the rank of "lieutenant", come, kick individual parts of the body to everyone, line up in a column of 3 and send to where the feat is located. And watch carefully so that they don’t run away along the way, don’t commit any act that implies responsibility under the criminal code, don’t rob any canteen. Bring to the place of the feat and show in what place you need to perform the feat, and even kick in the ass. Also, watch carefully what is happening. And then, only in this case, the result can be achieved only with some kind of aggressiveness.

You are familiar with the example of what will happen to a company if a company commander, 3 platoon commanders and 3 squad leaders die. This is the case when 13 aggressive people out of 100 are needed, who force everyone else to perform feats. Without them, there will be no progress. Of course, everyone would like everyone to be as one, like 28 Panfilov’s, “cheers, go ahead,” and so on, but life, unfortunately, is not arranged like that. We want to, but life is different.

Risk management

We all know that the Ukrainians during the Great Patriotic War had an SS division "Galicia", there were SS formations with Crimean Tatars, Chechens and someone else in their composition. And we usually don’t say anything about Russian traitors. But there were also Vlasovites and Cossacks. And more than half a million hivi (hilfswilfiger) - this is something like a household platoon - chop wood, drag ammunition. These are only people who served in regular units. And when Hitler seized part of Russian territory, who do you think drove the locomotives? Who worked on the railroad? And how many were there? Only 600 thousand people worked on the railway. These were not Germans, all of us were.

Why do we need to know this unpleasant information? You must understand that when you graduate and go into business, there will be the same percentage of people around you who are ready to betray you at any moment. Of course, we would like to believe that there are no traitors next to us, but they certainly were and, for sure, will be. And when you are building a model of how you should live, not necessarily in business - you still need to create a family, betrayal is also possible there, you should think about it. Somehow build a model in such a way as to minimize threats. We must always understand that there is something unpleasant nearby.

Building unpleasant models of the environment is called risk management. In risk management, it is important to build such a threat model that is extreme. Perhaps, if extreme models had been built before 1941, they would have prepared and changed the numerical composition of those people who would not help the invaders, but harm them. The same thing will happen in your life: as soon as you head some department, department, there will definitely be people in this department who will steal little, they will form documents and, slipping you later, they will help to put you in prison.

Therefore, always proceed from the fact that there will always be 6% of antisocial personalities who can commit extremely bad deeds next to you.

If you have created a business, this does not mean that you will definitely earn money. You may not gain, but you may lose. So, now you have some kind of life: an apartment, a car, a dacha ... You understand that you can lose all this. That when you take on an increased risk, doing business, wanting to make money, you can lose everything. The more spread you have, the more you want to gain, the greater the risk that you might lose something. And this risk can even be very significant.

In 1995-96, we had seven bankers: there were 7 close bankers to Yeltsin, who determined how the country should live.

By the way, here's your homework: write down the names of these seven-banker people. You see, what a model: 20-30 years have not passed, and no one knows anything about how life was arranged. These were 7 people who simply decided how the country would live.

And how did the whole thing end?

• 1. Berezovsky. Do we want to repeat the life path of Berezovsky?
• 2. Vinogradov, Inkombank. He also died very badly, in poverty, in a two-room apartment alone, he did not even have money for medicine. And those people whom he threw gave him money for medicines. Sad death.
• 3. Gusinsky. He didn't sit for long - a month, gave everything he had, and left for Israel. But he gave everything.
• 4. Khodorkovsky. Who is ready to earn a billion, and then serve 10 years? Think about it. Before you earn something, risk management must be carried out.
• 5. Smolensky. It seems that he is free, with money, but you need to remember that the Rosselkhozbank was his, but now he is not.
• . Potanin and Friedman - Alfa Bank. A lot of interesting things will happen to Alfa Bank soon enough.

Examples of big losses

Nine tons of gold is not the only example. Over the past 10, 20, 100 years, people have been let down as much as possible: Lemon Brothers, $40-50 billion; Bernard Meydorf, former president of NASDAQ, seems to be a smart person, but he just stole money - about 10 billion dollars.

The biggest negative outcome that has occurred in the last 20-30 years is the Long Term Capital Management fund. LTCM was founded, among other things, by two mathematicians who received Nobel Prizes for the theory of convergence in fixed and floating coupon bond markets. They received Nobel Prizes, opened a fund, raised a lot of money and consistently earned a lot for themselves and their clients. Only one nuance was not taken into account: their theory worked in the so-called laminar environment. They didn't know if it would work in a highly volatile market. And in 1998 they learned that their theory does not work in a turbulent environment. The loss amounted to 1 trillion. American dollars. To embroider this counter-debt, the FRS was going to. Keep in mind: even very smart people who have received Nobel Prizes can make mistakes in such a way that everyone who is nearby can suffer very much.

Another example: James Watson was a geneticist at the Human Genome Institute in Europe. About 400 geneticists worked at the institute, and the funding was 400 million euros per year. They slowly deciphered the human genome, until Watson at some symposium said that everything can be deciphered even tomorrow, if you want. But who will want if there is funding of 400 million euros for each year? He was expelled in disgrace from the ranks of geneticists, and he had to leave for America. There he found sponsors, they gave him 500 thousand dollars, he deciphered the human genome and received the Nobel Prize. It was just a broad, resonant story. In America, the hype immediately began: here, the country of unlimited possibilities, anyone who comes, achieves everything that is possible. This James Watson was shown on TV, he continued research. But again, he didn’t think with his head: he was smart in some part, but not very much in some. And he said in one of these interviews that he studied the genes of different races and found that they are genetically different, and that the black race lacks the genes responsible for brain development. In the USA, which are based on the Declaration of Human Rights, for the second time everyone stopped shaking hands with him. There were calls to deprive him of the Nobel Prize, to ban him from studying genetics, they stopped showing him on TV. There is a lot of knowledge for which people are not yet ready. Therefore, if some part of the intellectual capital is missing, you can lose everything.

Winston Churchill is a man who over the past 100 years has lost the maximum amount of value for himself and his country. When he became prime minister, he accepted England with all its colonies, including India, and gave away almost without a single colony, only Northern Ireland remained - this is an adequate model of the world. But they tell us about him: the greatest genius, the politician is a model for everyone.

At the same time, how was it not clear to the British who they were taking as prime minister? He also became famous during the First World War, when he tried to capture the Dardanelles. Someone taught him that there is no need to go on a broad front: the Dardanelles is a key point, we take it, and everything will be great. And how did he try to capture her? The English fleet approached the Dardanelles and stood for three days preparing to land. For three days, sensible Turks realized that steamships with cannons were standing for a reason. They pulled up the troops, dug trenches, set up barriers, turned around completely, brought up ammunition. Three days later, the brave English sailors went into this meat grinder. How else could it have ended? I went to this place, and read English sources, and asked the Turks - well, the fool Churchill is simply fantastic. However, nothing, Churchill was later elected Prime Minister, and he lost everything for the country that could be lost. How much this is in money, it is impossible to even estimate. Some trillions, such numbers do not exist. How much is India worth: she was English and stopped? What is the price? Yes, immeasurably.

Therefore, when you manage people or business, look carefully who is next to you, evaluate the risks for the staff, they are the biggest there are. God forbid, if you come across some Winston Churchill, it will all end sadly.

And evaluate “Before you go somewhere, can you get out of there” with at least what you have. If you're not sure, it's best not to go. Before asking the question, “What do you need to do to become very rich?” – think: do you want to become poorer? You can move not only there, you can also go back. Therefore, risk management is a mandatory component, and its main method is to build an adequate picture of the world, an adequate model of the environment.

In order for you to adequately assess the economic picture of your enterprise, you are taught management accounting. Not even accounting, it is for tax purposes. Management accounting is done precisely for this, in order to manage later on its results. It depends on the correctness of the data in management accounting whether you make the right decision.

In 1942, when General Belov defeated Guderian, he once again went into a breakthrough, and the Germans were already waiting for him and slammed the ring behind him. They were waiting for him to come out to break him. But he was a talented person and correctly built a model of the world around him. What is behind: German barriers, then German troops, then our troops, then NKVD troops. And ahead? Warehouses, warehouses, warehouses, warehouses. Belov carried out a 5-month raid on the rear of the enemy, because he understood: where, what and how to do. And he caused damage, and fed the personnel for 5 months, and went out to his own with practically no losses. This is the correct independent decision-making based on the correct picture of the world.

Can you make your own decision?

We remember Kemerovo - more than 70 people were victims. How many people died in fires last year? 7800. They died not in shopping centers, but mainly in residential buildings. Now tell me, who has a fire extinguisher in the apartment? 3 people, all - 6% of people who can make an independent decision from an adequate picture of the world. Is there a fire extinguisher on every floor? Not a small one from the car, but a big one, as it should be? It is from this picture of the world that it is clear whether your own family will survive.

And where, besides the fire, people still die? How many murders, for example, last year? 15 thousand. Can you imagine what to do if a murderer comes up and does something to you: where to run, how to fall, how to cover your head? Have you thought about it? Not that they were preparing, but just thinking? Where are the most people dying? Under what circumstances, does anyone know? In an accident. 300,000 people were injured in road accidents last year. Are you ready? Who always wears seat belts in the car? Well done, excellent, there is a chance of survival, there is a chance that everything will be fine. So, it's not in vain.

Homework for life

• Heinrich Ibsen "Enemy of the People";
• Gustave Lebon, The Psychology of the Masses. The book is serious and not easy to read.
• Nietzsche Antichrist. The Curse of Christianity”, “The Ideology of Morality”;
• Vilfredo Pareto "The Transformation of Democracy";
• Nicholas Taleb trilogy Fooled by Randomness, Black Swan, Antifragile;
• Ashmanov "Brain viruses";
• Belogorsky "Applied lokhovedenie".

Finishing the conversation about an adequate model, write down 3 statements that will be needed all your life, regardless of whether you want to or not. :

1. The first statement from Bulgakov's "Master and Margarita" - what the director of the clinic for the mentally ill said to the poet Ivan Bezdomny: "Anything can be said, but not everything that is said must be believed."
2. The second statement from Yulian Semenov: “I’ll tell you, Stirlitz, you can’t trust anyone in our time. I can. Hehe."
3. The following is from the film “The Cold Summer of 1953”: “People, Shura, especially in our time, cannot be trusted. People, Shura, are such goats.”

How to navigate people

What qualities do you appreciate in people in a given period:

• At 10 years old, people value mostly strength.
• At 20 already beauty attracts.
• At 30, you understand that a mind with decency would not be harmful.
• After 40, you will begin to understand that decency is more than half of all other qualities. Strength just doesn't matter. If a person is smart, he will be strong. And for women, Coco Chanel said that if a woman has not become a beauty by the age of 30, then she is just a fool.

An example of a model of the past and a model of the future

This picture will help build a model of the past and a model of the future. It would seem that everything is clear in the picture, how can a model be built on it?

What do you see in this picture? Pay attention to details. Flowers! They are all the same. This is a model of the past. It also does not happen that many different people brought exactly the same flowers.

What else can be interesting to see? Wrapped the same way.

And ribbons! Are the ribbons all the same? Why aren't all ribbons the same? When we photographed, we realized that the ribbons are all the same. "Take off the ribbons, you dumbass." He took it off, but one - perfectionism. “And if I take off all the rest, it will fall apart. Okay, I'll take it off." This is the model of the past. You just have to look carefully, it's still visible. The covers are the same, the ribbons are the same, I removed one, but the picture must not be very similar.

Each of the "admirers" took an article about him and wrapped the same flowers? No, it wasn't like that. They allocated money to make a beautiful picture. But I was too lazy to go to different places, they bought everything in one place, wrapped in the same package. Spread out, tyap-blunder done. Not all of them were the same, they diluted, they did a “washout”.

What else can we say? How much did this picture cost? How much did you spend on flowers? 30-50 thousand rubles. How much was stolen? As many. How much did you have to pay to host? The address is: RBC. Come and see.

When you read in the press how the people “mourn” about this “chosen one of the people”, always look at the details, how many people are grieving, or is it just one person grieving? And why did the grieving person allocate 30-50 thousand rubles for flowers, 100 thousand rubles for placement and 200 thousand rubles for the text.

Who provided the money? Someone who needed to promote this person as a "fighter for democracy." So, where this photo is promoted, there is funding, and funding does not happen only for 200 thousand. So more is allocated. And what is allocated will be mastered. And what conclusion can we draw from this for the future? What will be the same, only with a different photo. Well, what else if the money is allocated? What are the problems: well, they will find Skripal or some other. It doesn't matter with whom: the money is allocated - that's what is important to understand from this photo.

And then how will it work? There is money allocated. In this case, this is not PR, but a psychological information war. It means that it will go further, and someone is interested in this, someone allocates money, someone needs it. This is a big serious job. Here it is - a model of the future.

And in the same way, when you live, take a closer look, always look at who needs it. Aristotle said: look for who benefits. Everything will be clear and understandable to you, where, what and why.

You can't go making money unless you're sure you won't lose. You can't just walk. You now have freedom, nice people around you, some property: a car, a dacha, this and that, there is life ... Or maybe not. There is a high probability of different solutions, and only when you really learn risk management, management accounting, everything else, practice, then you can practice.

Practical approach to Education

Let's talk about how to properly arrange education, why students offer money for grades.

In 1991, I had to train the personnel of the company with new knowledge. It was necessary to teach people how to work in the bank financing market. But in 1991, it was not that no one knew about bank financing, there were about a hundred banks, and no one knew where they were, what to do with them and what to do. And you have to learn, you have to earn money. I conducted a study, found the very 20% efficiency that gives 80% of the result, as in the Pareto picture. After analyzing 20% of efficiency, I found the very 1% that gives half the success. At that moment it was the "Instruction of the Central Bank N1" and the bank chart of accounts. The first instruction was small - 5-6 pages, and the chart of accounts was already huge.

They began to look for the most important accounts, without which it is impossible to work. We found a cash-out bank, took a chart of accounts from him and decided: since he has them, then he can’t do without them. He fit this plan on one page and ordered his employees to learn it. He said that I would take the exams in person. How I, being interested in their learning, took exams: you have the right to not answer any of my questions 10 times, but each "not an answer" is 10 dollars. If you didn’t answer 10 times, you come next time, but already 20 times. If you don’t like it, here’s your way out of the company and live on your own. From the first time, in my opinion, 2 people only learned everything by heart, well, so that everything could be pulled out of them, most of them came 2 times. One employee (example of 6%) made it to $13,800 and then memorized it. This is 1991, remember how much the dollar cost - add a zero. True, everyone then all this business fought off. I was interested in teaching them so that they would learn. What's the point of wasting time on them if they don't know how to make money?

Therefore, by and large, here, I watch how people pay for grades, and I think that you have to pay for the fact that teachers find “holes” in your education. Here, on the contrary, if the teacher found something that you do not know, it is for this that he should be paid. Because you need to know something, not him - he already knows everything. You need this in order for Darwin's theory to somehow help you, Pareto's theory, Gauss's theory.

You, and by and large, need to be taught differently: you don’t need to take money for attending lectures, seminars, exams, you then need to receive a share of the income of these young people who studied something here for a certain period. That's when teachers will teach them differently, much more efficiently, and students will learn differently, much more efficiently. Because students will understand that if they lack the necessary knowledge that will really bring money, it is better to go to classes, learn and learn. Find out because you can make money on it. They will walk and pay. And they will be taught normally for this very reason, so that later on they will receive a “decent” percentage from them for a long time.

Globally, the world is not organized correctly: if you want to live better, try to rebuild. We had 2 brothers at MIEM - the Zworykins. One went to America and became the father of television construction. He got tired of working in the "mailbox", and his brother stayed and continued to do something top-secret. Televisions in America were taught to build by the Russian engineer Zworykin from our university! Just because he was not even in 6%, but in 1% - he wanted to, went and did it.

Perhaps someday there will be a university where they will take money for finding holes in the knowledge of the subject on the exam. And students will appear who need it. And it will be necessary, because it is so right. Therefore, it is the independent solution of issues that will give you some kind of movement into a brighter future.

Search for excess returns on the third iteration of the Pareto Rule

What do students in the food industry need to do to earn money without experience?

Find a good research supervisor. This supervisor, knowing the Pareto rule, will give the task to choose 20% of the goods that provide 80% of the profit. Not turnover - profit. There are 20-30 such products, and the supervisor will force you to analyze each type of product.

Purpose: to explore the entire technological chain and find the technological operation that is the most profitable. From 20% you need to go to 1%, to the third Pareto iteration, where there is the most money and the least products. If you look at the entire technological chain, most likely, the main added value will be in the process of logistics and distribution, and this is a service. Surely she is in perishable: in the sector "superfresh" and in hot food. It seems to me that the pizza that comes out of the oven is 4 times cheaper than the one that is paid for near the apartment.

Therefore, to earn, take the 20% of the most profitable products and explore the technological chain in length. For example, good roses cost 100 rubles in our country. And in Kenya - 6 euro cents. That's where the profitability, not in the food industry. The question is technology: how to deliver? All the same, you need a special refrigerator, sprinkle some kind of chemistry, etc. Everything else needs to be calculated. So, once you find the operation with the highest income, you need to decide how to bypass it. Let's say if it's a hot meal, it can be cooked in a restaurant, and this "nosinosha" carries around in a thermos. And you can make instant food: quick porridge - it is poured with hot water and porridge. Look, search, think, I can only tell you where to go, based again on those same laws.

An interesting example: a new company decided to sell pizza. But how to enter the market so as not to be too aggressive, there are already players everywhere. Thought up to play on greed. We introduced a rule: if we don’t have time to deliver in half an hour, we’ll give it away for nothing. And at first, every second pizza was specially delivered at the 31st minute. There was a popular rumor: “You order, they bring it, the pizza is warm, but you don’t have to pay.” So "word of mouth" within a month made them megapopular. If they advertised, they would spend much more money. When a month passed, they began to deliver on the 29th minute. That is, the percentage of late delivery began to decrease - not immediately, but little by little. Original idea plus originality of thinking that is required. They first found the product where you can look for this technological operation that brings mega profits.

Synergy

A simple definition of synergy is pairing a hedgehog with a snake and making an elephant. A lot of money is made by combining what seems to be incompatible.

1. For example, the Internet is an average profit business. The library is a very unprofitable business; in general, the poorest smart people work in the library. We take the Internet, glue it with the library and get Google. $200 billion capitalization. It would seem that a hedgehog and a snake, what do they have in common? And it turned out very much. And there are many such examples.
2. We take a wired connection, a telephone - what kind of money is there? Yes, none. We take digital technology, there is also no money, in general. We take cellular communications - that's it, we have a cellular operator, the capitalization of which is measured in tens of billions of dollars.
3. We take some mega-bandit business - a taxi driver. In addition to the bandits, there was no one there, and again we apply the Internet to it. Put together, it turned out Uber or Yandex-taxi. And it didn't seem to fit at all. Therefore, the money lies in such connections of businesses where no one expects them.

Talent is someone who hits a target that no one else can hit, and genius is someone who sees a target that no one else can.

And I tell you where to look. Take unconnectable things and try to connect them. For example, where is the easy synergy in the food industry that everyone sees?

1. Food industry and pharmacology, everyone understands this: vodka with salt - from the stomach, vodka with pepper - from colds, raspberry jam, quince jam - from colds. If they are sold not as food, but as medicine, the price will be much more expensive. There are also teas, but in this part the profitability is higher. Tea is sold more expensive, the surplus value is greater on it than on ordinary potatoes, on tomatoes.
2. Another synergy in the food industry can be achieved by connecting with religion. Obviously, halal and kosher products have higher profitability than non-halal and non-kosher products. My friend has gone to Sydney and is building houses there. He began to do marketing: where are the most interesting clients for selling houses, who are the richest clients? These are old Jews. There is a lot of money, they don’t give children, they spend everything on themselves. Where to look for old Jews? I looked at the maps, noted the synagogues, from them - walking distance - on Saturday they don’t go anywhere, they have to go to the synagogue on foot. He noted where the circles crossed, in this place he acquired plots, and sold them through rabbis. I unfastened their share, and they recommended where it was possible to buy a house so that they could walk to the synagogue. How can this example be used: put halal shops near mosques or kosher shops near synagogues.
3. Even the food industry can be crossed with pop art. There used to be bubble gums with Donalds that had inserts with a short comic strip. And they were the first to come up with the idea of putting pictures in food products in Russia - before the revolution, beautiful postcards were put into Einem chocolate.
4. What does Kinder Surprise add value to? Not on a chocolate bar, but on the fact that the child walks and says: dad, mom, this is it. He does not want a chocolate bar, he wants a small toy. That's where the added value is - on synergy with a toy.
5. Another synergy is being made with the lottery. Vittel, for example. Let's say you bought a bottle, wiped off the protective layer from the lottery on it - and you can win a ticket to the championship. It's easy to combine a lottery ticket with a food wrap. Gamers can choose products not simple, but one that can win a Mercedes. And one Mercedes on a million cans of Coca-Cola will probably pay off.
6. Another synergy can be done on acquisition. Relatively speaking, vodka with cucumber, beer with roach, pasta with minced meat. A good example: in a meat restaurant, “creon” should be on the menu, because heavy food is difficult to digest.
7. The food industry can also be crossed with sociology. Why do people buy iPhones if there are Samsungs and other cheap Nexia brands nearby, etc.? And they buy and pay 4-5 times more for the same functionality. So, in the food industry, you can think of something. I remember there was a time when sushi was very trendy. Similarly, here you can come up with such trendy food and go.
8. You can also cross with computer science. Let's cross EGAIS with a loaf of sausage. So that anyone who buys a sausage by a barcode can read it from a smartphone and know when it was made. Maybe yesterday, maybe a month ago. Not only will it be, but who needs it? Firstly, the buyer needs it so that he knows whether the product is fresh, and secondly, the manufacturer needs it to look at the location where his products arrived and after how long. If you make a website that will show such information for all types of products, then traffic and advertising on this site will bring a lot of money. And selling data on how the product moves through the distribution network is just a gold mine. Either you can sell it if you want little money, or use your own "holes" in the distribution network. And this is “adult” money, real money.

Big business, small, medium... How much money do you need? To be happy and all? This is not the goal.

What the Pareto theory teaches you: go and look for that 1%. In this percentage, even if you perform poorly, you will still have a normal return. There was once a large Internet provider, we met the management, and I did not understand how such idiots can make money? Very stupid people worked there. They just found the right segment in 1996, when the Internet was just beginning, in which even complete idiots made money. Because they found the right segment, there was a lot of money there at that moment. And you are looking for a segment that is growing rapidly, in which no one has entered yet, where aggressiveness is not required. If you come to the market, for example, alcohol, everything is divided there, and you will need a lot of aggressiveness to create something new that is not given to you. Look for those markets that have not yet begun, but which will definitely begin.

Now in Moscow, the project "Garden City" has just begun. In Europe, this has been known for about 10 years, probably, and is called “Ecoproducts”, the networks are quite large. We have 5-10 of them in Moscow so far, and in Europe, in almost every quarter, there is a fairly expensive store selling organic products. Everything is 3-4 times more expensive. Here is a "hole", you can do this by building stores, open an online store with delivery through delivery services.

Look for new niches and look for synergy there. The more unique synergy you come up with, the more money you earn. Take something that does not stick together with the food industry in any way. For example, at VDNKh, fishing was crossed with the food industry - you can fish there, and while you are fishing, they pour you and bring you a snack. Obviously, the main income is not in fishing itself, but from something that captures people.

It is not necessary to make money on a person's weaknesses, on the contrary, find those people who have diabetes and sell them buckwheat, which lowers sugar. Or create a website that a person visits, enters his illnesses, and you give out a list of foods that he can eat in this situation. If a person falls ill, for example, with the flu, he is shown: “Quince jam, 300 rubles. a jar, we will bring it within 30 minutes ”- he will buy, where will he go, he doesn’t want to get sick. Everyone has their own illnesses. My doctor friend says: “If a man woke up after 40 years and nothing hurts, then he died.” These are the simple types of combinations.

Total: four important formulas

So, important formulas: Gauss, Pareto, Darwin, synergy. 4 magic rules on which you can earn. But most importantly, if you are not confident in your entrepreneurial intellectual capital, if you lack any of these eight qualities, then it will be much easier to lose than to earn. My book describes how to calculate what is, what is not.

Fortitude is one of the most important qualities. As soon as you succeed, some of the employees will try to steal this idea, some competitor will try to force you out. And you need strength to get together and go to the end, wait for competitors to go bankrupt, or invent faster than others.

Thank you for your attention.