What did the US achieve after the first year of the Ukrainian war?

In the previous work entitled «What did Russia get after the first year of hostilities?» ¹, military, economic, inner policy and geopolitical aspects were analyzed.

In this article, we will limit ourselves to the economic aspect, but compare the United States with other "participants" of the conflict.

Exports

For Russia, the export growth forecast in 2022 was 20%-25% and the total amount of exports – about $750 billion in 2022 ², about $600 billion of which passed officially ³, and another $150 billion passed without reporting with payments in cryptocurrency and through sideways. The growth amounted to about $200 billion, which is very huge benefit for Russia.

Ukraine's exports fell from $70 billion to $45 billion. From the macroeconomic point of view, Ukraine as a state no longer exists. It lacks economic sovereignty and is unable to survive without external economic “support”. And the “support” relationship with the United States and its satellites is de facto an interstate contract of employment. Ukraine is now a mercenary state hired by the US and its satellites to fight a limited non-nuclear war with Russia.

But how profitable is it for the US and its satellites to hire Ukraine and pay tens of billions of dollars?

“In Germany, exports have risen by 14.3% in 2022, up to 1 trillion 564.1 billion euros.” ⁴ An increase of 219 billion euros is equivalent to $237 billion. Not bad at all! With such an increase, it is possible to “drop” $20-30 billion in the form of military or social assistance to the Ukrainians.

“Japan's exports for the same year have grown up by 19.5% compared to 2021 and amounted to 102.6 trillion yen ($754 billion). The main export volume was occupied by products of the engineering industry, as well as transport equipment, including cars.” ⁵ An increase of $126 billion is also looks good. It makes sacrificing part of the interests in fishing industry worth it.

By the end of 2022, American exports amounted to $3.01 trillion. ^{6 7} Giant growth by as much as 72%. The increase by $1,260 billion! It is obvious that from such profits the United States can “drop” $50 or $100 billion a year to maintain the war.

US export growth in 2022 was 72%

And what is surprising – the entire “independent” press is silent about these colossal figures. In a normal situation, they would excitedly spread it all around. However, considering the case, it is impossible for public discussion – it will immediately become clear who is the main beneficiary of the war. Andrei Ilyich Fursov is right: instead of “media”, one should say “SMAAM”. Systems of mass advertising, agitation and misinformation. They have nothing to do with objective coverage of events.

Against this background, it is interesting to see what is happening with the indicators of Russia's main anti-NATO and BRICS “allies”.

“Chinese exports in 2022 have risen by 6.9% and reached $3.59 trillion.” ⁸ $240 increase billion is significant even for China.

“India's exports in FY 2021-22 have risen by 43.5% comparing to the previous FY to a record high of $417.8 billion.” ⁹ The increase of $177 billion, even with such relative indicators, is also very significant.

Thus, the exports of Russia, China and India have also increased, almost as high as the exports of Germany and Japan, but the growth of US exports cannot be put in any comparison.

The growth in US exports is significantly higher than the growth in exports of all other significant “participants” of the conflict combined. This war is “mother-in-law” primarily for the United States.

	Exports, billion USD
	2021	2022	absolute growth/td>	relative growth
Russia	500	600	100	20%
Ukraine	70	45	-25	-36%
Germany	1 345	1 564	219	14%
Japan	628	754	126	20%
USA	1 750	3 010	1 260	72%
China	3 339	3 590	240	7%
India	237	416	177	43%

Foreign trade balance

“Russia's foreign trade surplus reached $332 billion, .... while imports fell by 11.7% to $259.1 billion.” ¹⁰

“In Germany imports have risen by 24.3% in 2022, up to 1 trillion 488.1 billion euros.” ¹¹

“Japan's imports are forecasted to rise by 34.7% up to 123 trillion yen ($904 billion).” ¹²

“By the end of 2022, US imports reached $3.96 trillion.” ^{13 14}

“China's imports have risen by 1.1% up to $2.72 trillion.” ¹⁵

“India’s imports have grown by 55% and reached $610 billion due to the growth of world economic activity. India's trade deficit amounted to $192 billion.” ¹⁶

	Exports billion USD	Absolute exports growth	Imports	Balance
Russia	600	100	259	332
Germany	1 564	219	1 488	76
Japan	754	126	904	-150
USA	3 010	1 260	3 960	-950
China	3 590	240	2 720	770
India	416	177	610	-206

Examining the foreign trade surplus, we can see that China, Russia and Germany received wrappers (various currencies) instead of goods worth more than $1.2 trillion, and the United States, Japan and India issued wrappers (US dollars, yen and rupees) instead of goods for an amount of about $1.3 trillion.

Comparing the growth of real exports and imports of foreign currency, we get the following figures:

Russia has officially increased exports of real goods by $0.1 trillion, but imported foreign currency, mainly yuan and rupees, in the amount of $0.33 trillion.
In the end $0.23 trillion deficit in commodity terms.
China has increased exports of real goods by $0.24 trillion, but imported foreign currency, mainly US dollars, in the amount of $0.77 trillion.
In the end $0.55 trillion deficit in commodity terms.
Germany has increased exports of real goods by $0.22 trillion, and almost haven’t imported currency.
In the end $0.2 trillion surplus in commodity terms.
Japan has increased exports of real goods by $0.12 trillion, and the export of banknotes (yen) – by almost $0.15 trillion.
In the end $0.27 trillion surplus in commodity terms.
India has increased exports of real goods by $0.17 trillion, and the export of banknotes (rupees) – by almost $0.2 trillion.
In the end $0.37 trillion surplus in commodity terms.
The US has increased both exports of real goods by $1.26 trillion, and the export of banknotes by almost $1 trillion.
In the end $2.21 trillion surplus in commodity terms.

And here the United States are the best fellows! One needs a talent to sell cut paper for real goods for almost $1 trillion within 1 year! The United States again were better in exchange of cut paper for goods than all the other “participants” of the conflict combined.

And by the way! Where did these issued dollars go? Usually, they are used to buy US Treasury bills.

Here the US, represented by the FRS, made another strong move – they sharply raised the discount rate, which, accordingly, led to a sharp decrease in prices for previously sold treasury bills, especially long-term ones. The all-time record in loss on stocks and bonds in the US financial system reached about $10 trillion. ¹⁷

And if we assume that people who knew in advance about the upcoming rate increase purchased the options in question, then it would be logical to assume that additional “earnings” from these options amounted to about another $1 trillion.

Summary:

Exports growth brought US $1.26 trillion;
Another $0.95 trillion the US made in trading cut paper for real goods;
Another approximate $1 trillion the US earned on machinations with FRS discount rate and its influence on the stocks and bonds markets.

The total amount is $3.21 trillion. And all in just one year!

And you think that's all? No. There is one more parameter.

GDP

In the “first covid” 2020 the US GDP was $20.89 trillion. By 2021 it jumped up to $23.0 trillion. dollars ^{18 19}. Maybe it happened due to the sharp dollar emission and growth of the FRS balance ²⁰, or maybe due to the slowdown in world trade because of the COVID epidemic. Although this is not the point, it is obviously worth paying attention to.

It is important that by the end of 2022, US GDP increased up to $25.5 trillion ²¹.

That is, GDP growth for the “first Russian-Ukrainian war year” amounted to $2.5 trillion! This means that the US economy grew both as a result of the artificial slowdown in Europe's international trade with Asia due to sanctions, and as a result of the growing competitiveness of the US economy as a producer of energy resources, which, in turn, was transformed into an industrial outflow (for example, from Europe to the USA).

And not just growth, but growth by more than 11%!

“The United States president Joe Biden tweeted, referring to independent experts, that this year the US economy will be able to overtake China in growth for the first time since 1976.” ²²

This shows the United States' great skill in manipulating the world economy to their advantage by fomenting regional conflicts far from US territory.

Ongoing transactions growth by $3.21 trillion and GDP growth by $2.5 trillion. In a year!

With such economic results, the US will do everything to ensure that “Russian Russians” and “Ukrainian Russians” kill each other for as long as possible.

Take it to the bank.

18.03.2023

⁽¹⁾ en.gribov.ru/What_did_Russia_get_after_the_first_year_of_hostilities.html

⁽²⁾ digital.gov.ru/ru/events/42702/

⁽³⁾ expert.ru/2023/03/13/vozvrascheniye-statistiki-kak-rossiya-torgovala-v-2022-godu/

⁽⁴⁾ www.finmarket.ru/database/news/5889275#

⁽⁵⁾ rossaprimavera.ru/news/3928b526#

⁽⁶⁾ www.interfax.ru/business/885060

⁽⁷⁾ bea.gov/news/2023/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-and-annual-2022

⁽⁸⁾ seanews.ru/2023/01/25/ru-import-i-jeksport-kitaja-itogi-2022-goda/

⁽⁹⁾ finance.rambler.ru/markets/48418554-godovoy-obem-vneshney-torgovli-indii-vpervye-prevysil-1-trln/

⁽¹⁰⁾ expert.ru/2023/03/13/vozvrascheniye-statistiki-kak-rossiya-torgovala-v-2022-godu/