Russian version

Why is Russia dragging out the war?

10/10/22,(1) on  the «great missile attack» on the electric power industry of Ukraine took place. Spent about 200 missiles.

Temporarily put out of action about 20% of power generation and about 20% of transmission networks in Ukraine. It is realistic to repair the transmission networks in a few days, and, accordingly, refusing to export electricity, Ukraine will not even feel the «strength» of the blow in these few days. Generation can be repaired without haste for at least a couple of months (2)

The costs are huge, the effect is near zero. Loud PR for a few days. What for?

 

If you really set the goal of a quick victory over Ukraine by disabling the infrastructure, then everything can be done much easier by shutting down the gas infrastructure of Ukraine.

  1. Cut off the gas supply to Ukraine.
  2. To stop the operation of the Shebelinsky gas field, the largest in Ukraine, by a missile strike, which, by the way, is located 17 km from the former Russian positions in Balakliya.
  3. Also destroy the contents of the largest Bilche-Volitsko-Uhersky UGS facility in Ukraine in the city of Stryi, Lviv region, with a missile strike.

Neither industry nor the population of Ukraine can exist without gas. They crawl on their knees.

To carry out this plan, you don’t even need to send troops!

Why have we been actively fighting for 8 months already? Why is mobilization carried out?

 

In order to answer this question, it is necessary to weigh the negative and positive results of the «long war» in military, economic, domestic and geopolitical aspects.

 

Military aspect

Negative result

  1. Dead, wounded, destroyed military equipment.There are many different points of view on the dead, I personally believe in the figure of 30,000 for the first year of the war. Is it a lot or a little? About 15,000 people per year die in road accidents in Russia, about 8,000 die from fires. In 2020, 50,435 people died from alcohol-related causes in Russia, according to Rosstat data.(3) We won’t even mention COVID, this rubbish will be worse than another war.

 

Positive result.

  1. Legal destruction of aggressive Russophobe-Banderites in Ukraine. The very ones who shouted «Moskal to Gilyak», «whoever doesn’t jump, that Muscovite», «Putin puilo la-la-lala-la-la». Including foreign Russophobes from all over the world.

    There are also many different points of view on the destroyed Russophobes, I personally believe in the figure of 250,000 in the first year of the war.

  2. Cheap disposal of obsolete weapons. For example, the T-62 tank on the world market costs no more than $50,000 with delivery. There is a lot of this stuff in warehouses and more than one year of war is needed for its complete utilization. In this case, the disposal of weapons corresponds to the «utilization» of notorious Russophobes;
  3. Cheap disposal of repeatedly expired ammunition. The disposal of only one projectile of 122-152 mm caliber costs 15,000 rubles. Up to 60,000 pieces are «disposed of» per day. Total savings on the disposal of shells alone is 1 billion rubles a day! Disposal of even one expired S-300 missile costs just a lot of money... And it’s scary to even imagine how many more expired shells and missiles are in warehouses awaiting disposal! In this case, the disposal of expired ammunition also corresponds to the «utilization» of notorious and confirmed Russophobes;
  4. Checking and modernization of the latest Russian (and not only) weapons systems: «Dagger», «Caliber», «Terminator», «Krasnopol», «SU-57», «Geran», various electronic warfare systems; (4)
  5. Real test of confrontation with NATO weapon systems such as HIMARS, Switchblade, Cesar 777, Javelin, etc.;
  6. In fact, there are «combat maneuvers» of Russia on Ukrainian territory with NATO, trying to increase the effectiveness of outdated Western weapons in conjunction with the latest satellite communications, intelligence and target designation;
  7. Physical «screening out» of incompetent troop leaders who went to the front line with personal cell phones or satellite communication systems turned on;
  8. In the «test by combat» became visible:
    1. The illiteracy of most of the top military leadership;
    2. Lack of coherence between the military branches;
    3. Lack of reliable communication on «foreign» territory;
    4. Problems of sniper business, drones, satellite recognition and target tracking;
    5. Fantastic theft of the top and senior leadership of the rear;
    6. Theft and looting of the middle command;
    7. The fatal unpreparedness of the RF Armed Forces to «jam» the Starlink global intelligence system;
    8. The actual betrayal of Russia’s interests by officials of the Ministry of Digital Development, who blocked a similar Russian project 5 (five!) years ago.

 

Balance

Despite a significant component of the negative result, the positive result in the military aspect exceeds it.

 

Economic aspect

Negative result

  1. «Freezing» (with subsequent seizure) in the West of the assets of the Central Bank in the amount of about $300 billion, as well as the assets of Russian officials, oligarchs and businessmen in the amount of about $2 trillion.
  2. Mobilization of 300,000 people with a corresponding reduction in the number of workers in industry and agriculture. Despite the huge number of idiotic tricks of a number of military commissars, in accordance with the order of the Ministry of Tsifra No. 712 of September 26, 2022, highly qualified specialists are almost not called up. This applies to very wide groups not only of IT specialists and bankers, but also of developers of military equipment, geologists, cartographers and even sound engineers.
  3. Recruitment of contractors with an estimated number of 500,000 people.

    In Russia, the «army» of security guards, according to various estimates, is up to 2,000,000 people. If a quarter of this number will protect the Motherland with weapons in their hands, nothing bad will come of it.

  4. The gouging (or intent?) of the employees of the Ministry of Finance, who included Cyprus, Gibraltar and the BVI in the list of unfriendly jurisdictions, hit the Russian economy more than any sanctions, since up to 90% of the economy in Russia is structured precisely in these jurisdictions;
  5. Sanctions strikes on the economy with the need to rebuild supply chains led to an imbalance in the distribution of consumer goods in one to three months, industrial goods from six months to two years;
  6. Sanctions and panic attacks on the financial system led to a fall in mortgages by 90% and real estate sales by 90%. The risk of an explosion of the «mortgage bubble» and the risk of bankruptcy in the construction sector has increased.
  7. The loss of three Nord Stream lines, taking into account Germany’s contractual obligations, will result in a loss of about $10 billion.
  8. There will be expenses for the restoration of Ukraine, including humanitarian aid and the «re-education» of some Ukrainians zombified by active Russophobic propaganda.

 

Positive result

  1. The huge revenues of the oil and gas sector of the economy and the budget of Russia from super-expensive gas and expensive oil will lead to an absolute record in 2022. So far, the export growth forecast is 40%-50% and the total amount of exports may well exceed $700 billion in 2022;
  2. The number of refugees from Ukraine has already exceeded 2,500,000 people, which repeatedly replaces in the economy Russians mobilized or fighting under a contract;
  3. Import substitution has noticeably intensified, especially in such strategic sectors of the economy as energy, communications, arms production, computer science, and banking;
  4. Logistics chains are being built that are not connected with really hostile jurisdictions.
  5. In response to the sanctions, the actual seizure of companies that actually belong to unfriendly jurisdictions, such as Shell, McDonalds, Society General (Rosbank), etc. for a total of $240 billion.(5)

 

Balance

Despite a significant component of the negative result, its formation is almost completed. And already now the positive result in the economic aspect exceeds it and will significantly grow further as the war «lengthens».

 

Domestic political aspect

Negative result

  1. Dissatisfaction of the majority of the population with the very fact of mobilization and sharp dissatisfaction with the absurd level of idiocy and gouging of many local military commissars;
  2. Sharp dissatisfaction of the majority of the population with the retreat of Russian troops in the Kharkov region;
  3. Further sharp separation of family ties between the inhabitants of Russia and the inhabitants of Ukraine;
  4. Consolidation of the inhabitants of western and central Ukraine under anti-Russian and Nazi slogans.

 

Positive result

  1. Consolidation of the inhabitants of Russia under pro-Russian and anti-Nazi slogans, a sharp decline in the ideas of Seraratism.
  2. The growth of pro-Russian sentiments after the admission of the DNR, LNR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions into the Russian Federation.
  3. A sharp decrease in the influence of the West:
    1. Rejection of the Bologna system of education;
    2. Physically, the «liberals» left the country: Chubais, Yavlinsky, liberal propaganda intelligentsia, such as leading employees of the publications Ekho Moskvy, Meduza, etc.
    3. Also, traitors to the Russian ideology left the country:
      1. Actors Galkin, Pugacheva, Urgant, Khamatova, Yarmolnik, Slepakov, etc.;
      2. Businessmen-oligarchs Prokhorov, Tinkov, Volozh, Milner, etc.;
      3. A small part of the technical intelligentsia, including some of the youth in the field of IT.
      4. «Runners» from the call.

        All of them now cannot count on a positive attitude of the state towards them, nor of the majority of the population. As the «great politician» Klitschko says: «They painted themselves in the colors they painted themselves with».

    4. The economic betrayal of the West in relation to the businessmen who trusted it was clearly marked. Friedman and Aven provided the most graphic example of the betrayal of the West.
    5. Officials who kept their fortune in the West became «half-poor» — their fortune in Russia (houses, apartments, cars, some cash) remained, and 95% of their savings in the form of money on «offshore» in Western banks or in the form of real estate on The West has virtually zeroed out. Therefore, those who want to stay in public service for a long time have become economically much more patriotic, and there is a serious hope for a transition from negative to positive political corruption.

     

    Balance

    The positive result in the domestic political aspect so far exceeds the negative result. But the situation may change if further mobilization is announced or significant territories are lost.

     

    Geopolitical aspect

    Negative result

     

    Practically absent. Numerous economic sanctions did not affect Russia negatively geopolitically.

     

    Geopolitics

    1. Putin managed to create a collective «Anti-West», consisting in the energy sector of China, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Venezuela, Iran, in other areas of the vast majority of countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Even Mexico! Stable political and economic ties are being formed for the coming decades.
    2. Against this background, a number of «fragile satellites» of France in Africa reoriented towards Russia. The «African District of Russia» begins to take shape.
    3. The prolongation of the war is beneficial to all producers of hydrocarbons that have risen in price, including the OPEC + bloc: Russia, Qatar, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia.
    4. Ruined by high energy prices, Germany, together with its Eastern European satellites, will have to change the political vector of development to an economic union with Russia.

     

    Balance

    The positive result in the geopolitical aspect is huge. There has never been anything like it in world history. For the first time, Russia has become a geopolitical player of the highest world rank.

     

    Final balance

    By and large, the main «benefit» of Russia is in geopolitics, but in the military, economic and domestic political aspects, despite the very significant indicators of a negative result, the positive result also outweighs.



    12.10.2022



    (1) Beautiful date, «as specially selected»!

    (2) Since the beginning of Russian strikes on critical infrastructure, electricity generation in Ukraine has increased by 4.3% during this time, Ravenstvo calculated. If on October 9 Ukraine produced 260.2 GWh of electricity, then on October 17 — 271.4 GWh, follows from the IEA data... Earlier, power plants did not operate at full capacity due to rapid de-industrialization (the utilization rate was 54%; last year). It follows from this that it is possible to restore production by additional loading of capacities. https://zp-news.ru/society/2022/10/19/49505.html

    (3) https://www.rbc.ru/society/12/06/2021/60c3b8ec9a794772666d700e

    (4) https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/16064645

    (5) https://www.forbes.ru/biznes/479159-eksperty-ocenili-v-240-mlrd-poteri-resivsego-pokinut-rossiu-inostrannogo-biznesa




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