List of "oddities" in the war with Ukraine

Refusal to declare a state of war.
A sharp reduction in the volume of reasoning by the «world» press of Russian gas supplies through Ukraine.
Security of the gas industry in Ukraine (a number of telegram channels claim that its possible owner is Biden Jr.)

Gas supply to Europe through the Ukrainian gas pipeline «Pomary-Uzhgorod» for $100 million daily;
No strikes on:
1. gas pipelines;
2. fields with gas production worth $30 million daily;
3. UGS facilities containing gas worth up to $1 billion each, and up to $10 billion in Bilche-Volitsko-Ugersky;
Withdrawal of Russian troops from Balakliya, located literally next to the largest gas hub and the Shebelinskoye gas field from the first day of the war.

No strikes on:
1. military and political leadership of Ukraine (Zelensky, Zaluzhny, etc.);
2. decision-making centers (including SBU departments and military registration and enlistment offices);
3. communication nodes;
4. nodes for the flow of electricity and voltage reduction from 220 kV to 10 kV;
5. strategic bridges and tunnels (Beskidsky);
6. railway junctions.
The actual non-use «in the mass» of weapons of the latest generations.
Refusal to jam Starlink satellite communications, actively used by the enemy, both at the local ⁽¹⁾ and country levels ⁽²⁾
The actual cessation of the destruction of the «mass» air defense of Ukraine immediately after the withdrawal of troops from Kyiv.
Virtually unhindered by Russia, the supply of NATO weapons to Ukraine.
Rejection of the large-scale purchase of Ukrainian heavy weapons from Ukrainian military personnel.
Withdrawal of troops from Kyiv.
Refusal to mine abandoned BCs and heavy equipment during retreats.
Explosion on the cruiser «Moscow».
Surrender of Snake Island.
Refusal to use the Kinbur Spit as a large rocket and artillery hub, from which 60 km to Odessa, 5 km to Ochakov.
Deal on grain with the passage of «empty» bulk carriers to the ports of Ukraine.
Refusal to blow up a huge army arsenal in Balakliya during the retreat.

Roman Skomorokhov wrote: «Everything that happens reminds me of a duel between two boxers. On the one hand — any of the Klitschko brothers (well, let Vitaliy be, he speaks beautifully), on the other — Nikolai Valuev. Everything is fine with Klitschko, but Valuev will perform with shackles on his left leg and a weight fastened to them, with his right hand tied to his body and with a blindfold on his left eye. And he won’t be able to hit Klitschko in the head».⁽³⁾

It seems to me that it is better to compare the situation with this «incomprehensible war» when a professional boxer was put in a fight with a five-year-old child, but they set the condition that the fight lasted two hours. And how can a professional boxer beat a child for two hours? He will cry after the first slap and leave the ring! And two hours somehow to stretch it is necessary. So the only option remains — to run away from the child shouting «Oh, I’m afraid, I’m afraid!», «Oh, he defeats me!». And you don’t have to run very fast so as not to break away in the distance...

Nevertheless, it becomes obvious that the following task has been set: «The price of energy carriers will be maintained at a high level for a long time, but not exceed the price level at which the European industry is forced to stop. All this time the world roducers of hydrocarbons will be squeezing all the liquidity and accumulated reserves out of the European industry and the population. Until the complete ruin of industry and the population. The loss to the Europeans, equal to the income of their competitors, will be more than $10 trillion».⁽⁴⁾

To solve this problem, the «incomprehensible» war in Ukraine must be dragged out for at least five years. But as? The answer is obvious:

• The war will take place at a distance from the main gas pipelines and places of Ukrainian gas production, that is, in the steppe part of Ukraine.

• Russian troops will conduct a positional war, grinding the Ukrainian volunteer-mobilization and hired «cannon fodder», making local advances.

• Ukrainian forces will occasionally win high-profile but minor victories to motivate Ukrainian conscripts and foreign mercenaries to participate in the war.⁽⁵⁾

And in order for the Ukrainian «side» not to run out of weapons, they must be freely imported from Europe and planted during the retreat of Russian troops.

From a moral and emotional point of view, this is very unpleasant to understand. But from an analytical point of view, a ruined Germany will have to change the political vector of development to an economic union with Russia. Is the game worth the candle? Analytically certain. To conquer Germany (in this case, also with all of Eastern Europe) at the cost of losing 200-300 thousand fighters is strategically correct. Only on the condition that these «candle fighters» do not rebel during this time. Which, obviously, needs to be paid more than close attention. We already saw a similar «picture» in 1917 and we do not need its repetition.

07.10.2022

(1) A mobile radio station on the chassis of the Urals can broadcast a "white noise" signal with a power of up to 1 kW, which is enough to jam a low-power signal from a satellite within a radius of up to 50-100 km.

(2) Before "perestroika", the USSR was able to jam the powerful signal of the Voice of America radio station almost throughout its entire territory.

(3) Skomorokhov Roman. Where is the Russian army? https://topwar.ru/202706-gde-voobsche-rossijskaja-armija.html

(4) Gribov A.Yu. Balakley. Correction of war goals and methods of achievement, advantages and disadvantages https://www.gribov.ru/balakleya_new_goal.html

(5) Located there

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