Why did we surrender Kherson?

In his previous article «Balakleya. Correction of war goals and methods of achievement, advantages and disadvantages» dated 09/11/2022⁽¹⁾ I already wrote that the real goals of the war were:

1. Maintaining energy prices for a long time at a high level, but not exceeding the price level at which the European industry is forced to stop. All this time the world producers of hydrocarbons will be squeezing all the liquidity and accumulated reserves out of the European industry and the population. Until the complete ruin of industry and the population. The loss of Europeans, equal to the income of their competitors, will be more than $10 trillion.
2. Long-term disposal on the territory of Ukraine of obsolete weapons and ammunition from Russia and NATO. According to the simplest estimates, Russia alone has many years of wartime outdated ammunition intended for disposal for many years of war. ⁽²⁾ The income from this disposal will be $ 2-3 trillion.
3. Pro-American and anti-American blocs test all the latest weapons on Ukrainian servicemen,⁽³⁾ refine them based on the results of combat use and test again. The military order for the next 10 years will be redistributed in the amount of more than $10 trillion.

Methods for achieving these goals.

1. The war will definitely drag on for 4-5 years.
2. The war will take place at a distance from the main gas pipelines and places of Ukrainian gas production, that is, in the steppe part of Ukraine.
3. Russian troops will wage a positional war, grinding Ukrainian «cannon fodder», making local advances. Accordingly, the number of mobile cannon artillery (ACS) will be increased.
4. Ukrainian troops will win high-profile and minor victories from time to time in order to motivate Ukrainian conscripts to participate in the war.

Advantages.

1. Strengthening and «spike» of the economies of the international anti-American coalition in the amount of about $5 trillion.
2. The weakening of the dependent economies of the American (Anglo-Saxon) coalition in favor of the US economy in the amount of about $ 5 trillion.
3. Russia’s additional hydrocarbon income over the next five years will be up to $2 trillion.
4. The transfer of part of Europe’s energy-intensive industry to Russia, the growth of its own energy-intensive industry will provide additional income over the next 10 years up to $1 trillion.
5. A significant increase in import substitution in strategic industries will provide additional income over the next 10 years up to $1 trillion.
6. Postponing for 3-4 years the moment of writing off the frozen assets of the Russian state, businessmen, officials and oligarchs in the amount of more than $2 trillion. in favor of pro-American structures under the pretext of «assistance to Ukraine».
7. Reducing the risk of invasion by Polish and Romanian armed forces on the territory of Ukraine.
8. Reducing the risk of using tactical nuclear weapons.
9. Reducing the risk of radioactive contamination of the territory as a result of sabotage at nuclear power plants.
10. Reducing the risk of sabotage on the Crimean bridge.⁽⁴⁾
11. Reduction of anti-state activity in Russia by US intelligence agencies.
12. Reducing the risk of the Yellowstone caldera exploding.
13. Reducing the risk for the population of Ukraine on the conduct of hostilities in the forest part of Ukraine.

The advantages of the military operation while leaving Kherson remained almost unchanged, while the disadvantages of the operation are similar, but somewhat different.

Unlike the «Balakliya battle», the Russian state in the Kherson region did not abandon its citizens, but evacuated them in an organized manner. This means that it is teachable, which means that «all is not lost.»

But the refusal of the state to explain to citizens the real benefits of the surrender of Kherson only causes an increase in all the previously listed shortcomings, namely:

1. A significant decrease in the level of trust in the state, both in the liberated territories and among the indigenous citizens of the Russian Federation.
2. The decrease in patriotic sentiments in Russia, the growth of Russian dissatisfaction with the military policy of the authorities. As a result, an increase in the risk of a «palace coup» in Russia by the forces of internal warring parties.⁽⁵⁾

In order to translate into simple language what the state did not say, I explain:

1. Already this year, Russia’s exports will exceed the exports of 2021 by more than 40% and will amount to about $700 billion. This is a direct consequence of the war, as a generator of rising prices for export products. And such good figures from exports will now definitely last for several years. If the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation had made a breakthrough from Kherson to Transnistria, the war would have ended quickly, which would lead to a drop in prices for gas, oil, coal, fertilizers, food and our other export goods. Then the forecast for exports in 2023 would not be the expected, once again, $700 billion, but only $400 billion. This difference would significantly hit the state, and even ordinary Russians.
2. Mortality in 2022, despite combat losses, will be lower than in 2021. First of all, due to the «disappearance» of COVIDa. And while the war is going on in Ukraine, no new viruses are expected.
3. Traditional US allies such as Germany, Italy, France, England, Japan, and South Korea have begun to realize that the war is being waged against their economies, and by extension, their citizens. The longer the war lasts, the more likely they are to turn politically towards Russia.
4. The victory of Xi Jingping in China, Netanyahu in Israel, the surprisingly failed assassination attempt on Imran Khan in Pakistan could also be part of the deal. Moreover, from the point of view of geopolitics, it is much more important for Russia than the loss of Kherson.

More details «Why Russia is dragging out the war» can be found here http://en.gribov.ru/why_russia_need_longtime_war.html

And there is nothing geoeconomically important in Kherson either. No oil, no gas. There are no fossils. Industry even before Russia was shattered to smithereens. The famous Kherson shipbuilding plant «democratic Ukrainians» have long been dismantled for scrap. There remains a port, but all ships passing through it will pass by the Kienburg Spit, which remains under our control. Geo-economically, the loss is small.

But the self-esteem of Russians suffered greatly. The Russians «harness for a long time, but they drive fast.» God forbid we see a Russian rebellion, as the poet said. It will be both senseless and merciless. And it must be prevented in advance. Fortunately, it’s not so difficult to explain everything to the Russians normally. It just needs to be done, and not left to «maybe».

10.11.2022

PS

«Any coincidences are coincidental».

• statements by the Russian Federation about readiness for negotiations without preconditions;

• The United States extended until May 15, 2023 permissions for banks to conduct transactions related to Russian energy supplies;

• Abramovich got control of $6 billion;

• The London Metal Exchange abandoned the idea of imposing a ban on the supply of metals from the Russian Federation;

• The US does not object to India buying Russian oil above the price ceiling without using the services of Western companies;

• The Netherlands allowed the shipment of 20,000 tons of Russian fertilizer to Africa, stuck in the port due to sanctions against the owner of the cargo.

Telegram channel «Zerada» 11/12/2022.

(1) https://en.gribov.ru/balakleya_new_goal

(2) «You can only use data from two to three years ago, according to which about 2.8 thousand T-55 series vehicles, 1.6 thousand T-62 series, 7.5 thousand T-72and more than 3 thousand .T-80. Also in storage are about 2.2-2.3 thousand tanks of the T-64 series.» Evgeny Fedorov: «More than 2 thousand T-64s. Why are they still in Ukraine?» https://topwar.ru/203720-bolee-dvuh-tysjach-rossijskih-t-64-pochemu-oni-do-sih-por-ne-na-ukraine.html

(3) For example, «Geraniumn»

(4) The only thing that did not come true, but with significant reservations. A car with explosives managed to undermine two spans with one explosion, and not «herringbone down», but «herringbone up». That is, the spans collapsed not near one support, but near two different supports, and not next to each other, but through one. For any technical specialist who has studied sopromat, this is a very «strange» destruction.

(5) «A victorious war unites the elite around the leader, an unsuccessful war, and even an aggressive one, always leads to a split in the elite, to the search for the guilty, to mutual accusations, to the departure of all or almost all of the leader and, ultimately, to the collapse of the political regime,» — Andrey Zubov.

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