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Balakley. Correction of war goals and methods of achievement, advantages and disadvantages

Of course, before making more accurate forecasts on the goals of the war, it would be necessary to publicly analyze the «strangeness» of this war and draw a reasonable conclusion. But, in order to avoid liability under the law «on fakes», under which after the Balakley battle up to 90% of military correspondents and bloggers can be brought, it is better not to do this publicly.

Thus, omitting the analytical part, we will make assumptions about the correction of goals in the war.

 

  1. The idea to quickly, within a year, ruin and buy up cheaply the industry of Europe has been discarded. The price of energy carriers will be maintained at a high level for a long time, but not exceed the price level at which the European industry is forced to stop. All this time the world producers of hydrocarbons will be squeezing all the liquidity and accumulated reserves out of the European industry and the population. Until the complete ruin of industry and the population. The loss of Europeans, equal to the income of their competitors, will be more than $10 trillion.
  2. NATO and Russia will take a long time to dispose of obsolete weapons and ammunition on the territory of Ukraine. Only in Russia many times overdue ammunition intended for disposal, according to the simplest estimates, is available for many years of war. The income from this disposal will be $2-3 trillion.
  3. The pro-American and anti-American blocs will test all the latest weapons for Ukrainian servicemen, refine them based on the results of combat use, and test them again. The military order for the next 10 years will be redistributed in the amount of more than $10 trillion.

 

Methods for achieving these goals.

  1. The war will definitely drag on for 4-5 years.
  2. The war will take place at a distance from the main gas pipelines and places of Ukrainian gas production, that is, in the steppe part of Ukraine.
  3. Russian troops will wage a positional war, grinding Ukrainian «cannon fodder», making local advances. Accordingly, the number of mobile cannon artillery (ACS) will be increased.
  4. Ukrainian troops will win high-profile and minor victories from time to time in order to motivate Ukrainian conscripts to participate in the war.

 

Advantages.

  1. Strengthening and «spike» of the economies of the international anti-American coalition in the amount of about $5 trillion.
  2. Weakening of the dependent economies of the American (Anglo-Saxon) coalition in favor of the US economy in the amount of about $5 trillion.
  3. Russia’s additional hydrocarbon income over the next five years will be up to $2 trillion.
  4. The transfer of part of Europe’s energy-intensive industry to Russia, the growth of its own energy-intensive industry will provide additional income over the next 10 years up to $1 trillion.
  5. A significant increase in import substitution in strategic industries will provide additional income over the next 10 years up to $1 trillion.
  6. Postponing for 3-4 years the moment of writing off the frozen assets of the Russian state, businessmen, officials and oligarchs in the amount of more than $2 trillion. in favor of pro-American structures under the pretext of «assistance to Ukraine».
  7. Reducing the risk of invasion by Polish and Romanian armed forces on the territory of Ukraine.
  8. Reducing the risk of using tactical nuclear weapons.
  9. Reducing the risk of radioactive contamination of the territory as a result of sabotage at nuclear power plants.
  10. Reducing the risk of sabotage on the Crimean bridge.
  11. Reduction of anti-state activity in Russia by US intelligence agencies.
  12. Reducing the risk of the Yellowstone caldera exploding.
  13. Reducing the risk for the population of Ukraine on the conduct of hostilities in the forest part of Ukraine.

 

Flaws.

The Russian state in the Balakleya region showed not only the impossibility, but also the unwillingness to protect not only the employees of the CAA (1), but also newly minted citizens of the Russian Federation, which is completely unacceptable for any state. This entails:

  1. A significant decrease in the level of trust in the state, both in the liberated territories and among the indigenous citizens of the Russian Federation.
  2. The decrease in patriotic sentiments in Russia, the growth of Russian dissatisfaction with the military policy of the authorities.
  3. An increase in the risk of a «palace coup» in Russia by the forces of internal warring parties.

 

The prospect of a significant decrease in the population of Ukraine in the period of 4-5 years can be perceived by different groups of analysts as both an advantage and a disadvantage.

 

Thus, the short-term and medium-term goals in the war, formulated in the work «Goals and objectives of the current war»(2) have changed, which is macroeconomically and macropolitically good.

 



11.09.2022







(1) - https://t.me/s/genshab?before=851

(2) http://en.gribov.ru/Goals_and_objectives_of_the_current_war.html





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