Who are we actually at war with?

In my previous work «Why is Russia dragging out the war?» it was possible to establish that the prolongation of the war in Ukraine is beneficial to Russia in all aspects, and especially in the geopolitical one.

The fact that the war is exclusively beneficial to the United States is also clear. They now ship more than 200 million cubic meters of natural gas to Europe per day at spot prices, which gives them at least $300 million in additional revenue per day, or more than $100 billion per year. Their income is also obvious both from the supply of obsolete military equipment to Ukraine, and from the production of new weapons systems instead of the «retiring» ones. And, of course, the already existing income from the «freezing» of Russian assets.

And who is the loser from the war?

We do not consider Ukraine, it has no legal personality, and de facto is not a goal, but a means of waging war. But with whom?

The biggest losers from the war in Ukraine are importers of gas that has risen in price. Who are these countries?

After analyzing a number of sources, it was possible to obtain approximately the following picture for the largest gas importers for 2021 in billion cubic meters.

State	Gas import 2021 billion cubic meters
Germany	155
China	138
japan	107
Italy	70
Great Britain	53
South Korea	51
France	46
Turkey	38
Spain	36

At the same time, it is worth noting that China and Turkey have long-term pipeline supplies at a fixed price from Russia, while Italy and Spain — from Algeria through Sicily and Gibraltar, respectively.

Then the corrected list of those affected by the increase in spot gas prices will look something like this:

State	Gas import 2021 billion cubic meters
Germany	100
Japan	107
Italy	20
Great Britain	53
South Korea	51
France	46
China	70

What is surprising is that, apart from China, all the «affected» countries have a pronounced pro-American policy. In preference, this is called: «If you can’t help the player, help the whistler.» And in politics: «What could be worse than a war with an American? Only friendship with him!»

So, from the point of view of geo-economics, the United States, in alliance with Russia, is waging an economic war against Germany, Japan, England, France and South Korea. At the same time also against China.

These countries, purchasing gas on the spot market, will lose more than $700 billion a year in total, which will affect not only the balance of payments, but also the competitiveness of the economy.

They will suffer a year, another. And then they will have a choice — either the loss of the economy, or a change in political course. What will win? It is said that «being determines consciousness.» Well, let’s wait and see.

17.10.2022

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