Russian version

Is the US our enemy in the war in Ukraine?

The vast majority of political scientists believe that since Putin’s Munich speech in 2007 on the need for a multipolar world, the United States has become our enemy. They say that the United States needs a rigid dominance in the world, and they do not accept otherwise. The most radical analysts believe that «America needs only one thing from us — that we should not exist.»

I guess this is a mistake. Moreover, from the point of view of a science called «political economy», this cannot be. Let me explain.

The military lobby and the lobby for hydrocarbon producers are very strong in the United States. This is a well known fact.

Let’s ask ourselves the question: «And to whom will the US military-industrial complex sell weapons if the world is unipolar and the United States has won?» The answer is obvious — if the United States has already won, then new weapons no longer need to be purchased in such volumes. And such a decision will hit the revenue of corporations such as Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and many others. The US military budget is more than $700 billion. The emergence of a unipolar world means a decrease in military-industrial complex revenues by $300-$400 billion a year. And the decrease in the income of senators and congressmen «from the military-industrial complex» will be more than noticeable. Do they need it? No. The US military-industrial complex needs a major militarized power capable of threatening the US. Only then will the income of arms companies be large enough.

The situation is similar with the largest US oil and gas companies. The so-called «seven sisters» «named after John Rockefeller»: British Petroleum, Exxon, Gulf Oil, Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron and Texaco. The average cost of oil production is $20 per barrel. How to explain to consumers why this oil should be sold for more than $90 per barrel? In a normal peaceful world, the profit from the sale of minerals cannot be 300% −400%. Not at all! 20% maybe. Maximum 30%. But not 300%! And the profit was just so reasonable before the Arab-Israeli conflict. Only the military actions of the Arabs with the support of the USSR, and, accordingly, the Jews with the support of the United States, increased the price of oil by 4 times. And since then, this war has been used by the United States, Russia and the Arab world for a «non-transparent» increase in the price of oil. When the Arab-Israeli conflict began to subside, «accidentally there were» alleged enemies of the United States in the Arab world in Iran, Iraq and even Afghanistan. And now the «seven sisters» are in dire need of a major militarized power, whose geopolitical actions would be a convincing pretext for raising oil prices. For the oil and gas sector, war is now not just a «mother of the family», but also an indispensable ingredient in business activities.

Therefore, for the military-industrial complex and the oil and gas industry of the United States, a unipolar world is unacceptable. The victory of «world peace» will lead to a sharp decrease in the profitability of these sectors and, accordingly, a change in the economic, and hence political, elites in the United States, and throughout the world.

They desperately need an image of the enemy that can be shown to American (and not only!) Citizens. It was not for nothing that a joke appeared in 1999:

A mature, North American Superpower is looking for a hostile country to participate in the arms race, third world conflicts and general confrontation.
Must be threatening enough to convince Congress to give us funding. Preference will be given to those with a nuclear arsenal, and proposals from those who come close to creating nuclear weapons will also be considered.
Planet Earth, any area.
Send a letter and a photo of tank armadas to General K. Powell,
Pentagon, Washington DC, USA.» 1

Therefore, Putin’s announcement of a multipolar world was «manna from heaven» for these oligarchs. Immediately after that, Putin became vital to the US military and hydrocarbon lobby, since it is precisely by creating the image of an enemy out of him that one can fool oil consumers and American taxpayers. «The cat abandoned the kittens, it’s Putin’s fault.» These words are much more convenient for American citizens to say, instead of the words «arms manufacturers need orders, and oil companies need huge profits.»

And since Russia (perhaps by a surprising coincidence) is also the world’s producer of hydrocarbons and the world’s weapons producer, such a deception of American (and not only) consumers of oil and weapons plays into Russia’s hands.

Conspiracy theorists may talk about «a joint conspiracy of the highest authorities of Russia and the United States,» but economically literate people cannot help but see the commonality of macroeconomic interests. The American military-industrial complex needs to produce weapons and the Russian military-industrial complex needs to produce weapons. US oil companies need windfall profits and Russian oil companies need windfall profits. If the implementation of such goals requires a sluggish, but socially high-profile conflict, then why not create it?

To increase the price of oil by 4 times, they created the Arab-Israeli conflict. To increase gas prices by 4 times (what an amazing coincidence!) a Russian-Ukrainian conflict was created.

Nobody in the world feels sorry for Jews or Ukrainians. According to another surprising, of course, coincidence, the power in Ukraine is mainly represented by Jews. And the military-intelligence community in Israel is mainly represented by Soviet Jews from Ukraine and the Baltic states. Of course it’s a coincidence!


Therefore, as soon as political scientists realize that the United States and Russia are de facto on the same side in world politics, all the analytics of the Russian-Ukrainian war will become clear to them.


Summing up, we can conclude:

  1. A long-term Russian-Ukrainian military conflict is equally beneficial to the military and oil companies of Russia and the United States.
  2. Its quick completion is unprofitable for either side.


Therefore, in fact, none of them need a quick victory. No side. It is only necessary to agree on time so that neither side does anything that would lead to a quick end to the war. For example, so that Russia would not hastily seize the main Ukrainian gas field in Shebelino, 17 kilometers from Balakliya, or inadvertently break through the Kherson-Pridnestrovie military corridor.

And in order to make the agreement less obvious, the United States is supplying Ukrainians with obsolete weapons in quantities sufficient for defense, but by no means for military parity.

So far, the agreement between the United States and Russia is seen as «Losses of Ukrainians will be 8 times higher than those of Russians, but let’s give Ukrainians resounding victories.» Therefore, they give. Cruiser «Moscow», Snake Island, Kharkiv region, Kherson region. Loud and inspires Ukrainians.

And they stupidly forgot about the inspiration of the Russians. What’s wrong.


(1) 14.04.1999, FRESH JOKES - MAIN ISSUE

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