Russian version

Prioritization of the war aims according to the economic results of the first year of hostilities

«Politics is the concentrated expression of economics».

V.I. Lenin 1

The main result of the first year of the war in Ukraine appeared to be the analysis of stakeholders’ income that arose from hostilities, and, therefore, the prioritization of goals.

The long-term retention of high energy prices became the main aim of the war. The aim resulted in $2 trillion per year 2 3 «in cash» and another $4 trillion in terms of competitiveness of the economies of energy producing countries, which, in its turn, is results in industry flow towards more competitive economies (for example, from Europe to the USA).

Additional war objectives became (in descending order of importance):

  1. Getting new defense contracts. Targeted in $3 trillion in total. An obligatory part of this goal is both testing of all types of weapons and tactics on the “Ukrainian training ground” and the disposal of old weapons. An additional goal is to “simply drain” money from the United States and NATO budgets into a “black hole” called Ukraine. Such “drain” in Afghanistan brought $1 trillion in just almost 20 years.
  2. Confiscation of Russian oligarchs’, officials’ and businessmen’s money, placed in the West on the offshore companies’ accounts, and other assets. Target performance is $2 trillion in total. Part of this goal is to create a “fifth column” among Russian officials and businessmen for their own money.
  3. Artificial severance of Russian economic ties with Europe and Japan. Target damage is $0.3 trillion per year.

What does this prioritization of goals mean in real life? Why is it so important for forecasting the future?

It means that the united lobby of the energy resources and weapons producers will not allow the “United Financiers of the West” to make any sudden moves.

The “United Financiers of the West” would very much like to launch a massive drone attack on Moscow through Ukrainian proxies from the territory of Ukraine, then wait for a massive Russian response, during which it will be possible to detonate a nuclear charge in Kyiv, and to blame Russia for it. This would be sufficient grounds to complete the legalization of the robbery of Russia and Russians for a total amount of about $2 trillion placed in the West.

But such an escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to its rapid ending. The population of Russia will immediately demand from the Russian leaders an immediate victory over Ukraine by simply turning off the gas and physically eliminating the leadership of Ukraine. And ending of the conflict is in no way needed for the united lobby of energy resources and weapons producers. What they need is a long-controlled conflict, like the Arab-Israeli one. To pump about $1 trillion in “real money” annually out of Europe and Japan. Not more, as the economies of Europe and Japan can simply collapse. And it is necessary that they work and pay an additional tax on the “war in Ukraine” in form of surcharge on the price of energy resources. And the “training ground” for testing new and disposing old weapons called Ukraine should also operate without stopping.

To fulfill this main goal, Russia will delay its victory over Ukraine as long as possible by “not striking” HQ, leadership, strategic communications and other strategic targets. And also, not killing more than 300,000 soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine annually, so that they are not exhausted ahead of schedule. To fulfill this goal, the US and NATO will supply military equipment, ammunition and energy resources to Ukraine, as well as involve the countries of Eastern Europe in the production of ammunition.

To continue the Eastern European military conflict after Russia's victory over Ukraine, Romania and Poland, and then the Baltic states and Finland, must be slowly drawn into the war.

Romania will gently integrate Moldova, make an attempt to seize Transnistria and receive a missile attack on the Ploiesti oil fields and military bases. Most likely from the territory of Transnistria.

Poland will softly invade Western Ukraine and receive a massive, possibly even nuclear strike against Polish forces in the Lviv area.

Belarus will join the military conflict “without hesitation”.

If this does not prolong the war for the expected 5-10 years, then the turn of the Baltic states will come, which will totally repeat the Ukraine scenario: declaration of presence of nuclear weapons on their territory followed by Russian military operation with missile and bomb strikes.

Finally, the US and NATO still have a new member in reserve – Finland, which will be persuaded to step on the same rake for a third time.

In the event of the ending of the conflict in Eastern Europe, remains another option of escalation of the military conflict between Greece and Turkey in the Turkish gas hub area, as well as between China and Taiwan.

The United States will gladly throw Georgia and Armenia into the furnace of war. A lot of American money is spent on them without almost any sense. On the other hand, problems on the Baku-Tuapse oil pipeline are guaranteed to raise energy prices.

But what is important! All of these conflicts must be manageable and sluggish. Without strikes on headquarters, leadership and strategic infrastructure. For example, a Greek-Turkish war in general can only take place on the territory of Cyprus and Greek islands, with rare missile attacks on the coastal regions of Turkey and Greece.

Such methods can prolong wars for 10 or 20 years. Only it will not be a war, just a circus. However, there is nothing particularly new in this. You have watched the Arab-Israeli circus for 40 years, haven’t you? Thus, humanity will also watch the Eastern European, Greek-Turkish and China-Taiwan circuses the same way. Not for the first time.


(1) «Once again about the trade unions, the current situation and the mistakes of comrades Trotsky and Bukharin».



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