Russian version

What did Russia get after the first year of hostilities?

This article is a continuation and a supplement to the article Why is Russia dragging out the war?

It evaluates the negative and positive results of the long war in the military, economic, domestic political and geopolitical aspects after the first year of the hostilities.

Military aspect

Positive results

  1. Dead and wounded. Normally they are recorded as negative result. But not in this "war".

    On February 1st, 2023, RBC published data from Rosstat on the number of permanent population of Russia.
    According to the results of 11 months of 2022 (the latest available statistics), the natural decline amounted to 543.4 thousand people. Which is less than during the same period in 2021, when amid the effects of the pandemic, the decline reached 945 thousand people.1
    This means that in the conditions of war the decline of population has decreased by 400 thousand people per 11 months of 2022!
    Thus, while there was no war, the decline of population was higher by 400 thousand people per 11 months of 2021!
    The numbers literally tell us: War is a lesser evil than COVID...2

    Surprisingly, the situation in Ukraine is the same. 541,739 deaths were registered in 2022, which is 24% less than in 2021.3 That is, despite the huge military losses, there were more than 100,000 fewer deaths than during the pre-war COVID period!

    There are many different points of view on the number of killed Russians, I personally believe in the figure of 30,000 - 40,000 during the first year of the war. Is it huge or not? About 15,000 people per year die in road accidents in Russia, about 8,000 because of fire. 50,435 people died from alcohol-related causes in Russia, according to Rosstat data in 2020.4
  2. Legal elimination of aggressive russophobe-banderites in Ukraine. Those who shouted different russophobic chants. Including foreign russophobes from all over the world. CNN gives figures of 259,085 killed and died from injuries and diseases starting from February 24, 2022 up to February 28, 2023. The number of wounded is about 247 thousand.5
  3. Cheap disposal of obsolete weapons. For example, the T-62 tank costs not more than $50,000 including delivery on the world market. There is a lot of this stuff on warehouses and more than one year of war is needed for its complete utilization. According to various sources, from 15,000 to 20,000 obsolete tanks are stocked on conservation. Ancient artillery systems such as S-60 anti-aircraft guns and even D-1 howitzers are also being utilized. In this case, the disposal of weapons corresponds to the "utilization" of notorious russophobes;
  4. Cheap disposal of ammunition that expired long ago. The disposal of only one projectile of 122-152 mm caliber costs 15,000 rubles. Up to 60,000 of these pieces are "utilized" per day. In the end only savings on the disposal of projectiles reach 1 billion rubles per day! Disposal of even one expired S-300 missile costs just a lot of money... And it's hard to imagine how many more expired projectiles and missiles remain on warehouses and waiting for disposal! In this case, the disposal of expired ammunition also corresponds to the "utilization" of notorious and confirmed russophobes;
  5. Testing and modernization of the up-to-date Russian (and not only Russian) weapons systems: "Kinzhal", "Kalibr", "Terminator", "Krasnopol", "SU-57", "Geran", "Lancet", various electronic warfare systems. Almost the entire line of advanced aviation weapons designed and manufactured by the Tactical Missile Weapons Corporation (KTRV) was successfully tested during Special Military Operation in Ukraine 6;
  6. Real test of Russian weaponry against NATO weapons systems such as HIMARS, Switchblade, Gepard, Cesar, 777, Javelin, Patriot, Leopard, etc.;
  7. In fact, Russia is carrying out "combat maneuvers" on Ukrainian territory against NATO, which is trying to increase the effectiveness of outdated western weapons by supplementing them with the latest satellite communications, reconnaissance, target designation and target tracking;
  8. As a result of these "combat maneuvers", new types of military formations appear, such as Combat Army Reserves and PMCs, which, after the end of the East European War, possibly including the war in Moldova and the Baltic states, can be used in Africa to create a full-fledged "African Federal District" with plenipotentiary Prigozhin E.V. at the head of it.
  9. Physical "screening" of incompetent army leadership, who appeared at the front line with personal cell phones or switched on satellite communication systems;
  10. The results of the "test by combat" are following:
    1. The incompetence of most of the high military command;
    2. Lack of coherence between the army branches;
    3. Lack of reliable secure communication on "foreign" territory;
    4. Problems in sniping, combat drones, satellite recognition and target tracking areas;
    5. Fantastic level of corruption in the top and senior leadership of the rear;
    6. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation leadership and the Rostec State Corporation unwillingness to produce cheap and effective military equipment such as high-speed air drones with cumulative grenades, since it is impossible to "effectively" steal on the production of cheap equipment;
    7. Theft and looting in the middle command;
    8. RF Armed Forces fatal unpreparedness to "jam" the Starlink global intelligence system;
    9. The actual betrayal of Russia's interests by the officials of the Ministry of Digital Development, who blocked the similar Russian project 5 (five!) years ago.

Balance

The negative result is almost absent, while the positive result is huge. Only for the sake of reducing the death rate by more than 400,000 people a year alone, it was worth waging war, not mentioning other positive results.

Economic aspect

Negative result

  1. Freezing (with subsequent seizure) of the Central Bank assets in the amount of about $300 billion kept in the West, as well as the assets of Russian officials, oligarchs and businessmen in the amount of about $2 trillion.
  2. Mobilization of 300,000 people and, therefore, reduction of this number of workers in industry and agriculture.
    Despite the huge number of idiotic tricks of some of the military commissars, in accordance with the order of the Ministry of Digitalization No. 712 dated September 26, 2022, high qualification specialists are almost not called up. This applies to very wide groups, not only IT specialists and bankers, but also developers of military equipment, geologists, cartographers and even sound engineers.
  3. Recruitment of contract soldiers in the amount of approximately 500,000 people.
    The army of security guards, according to different sources, is up to 2,000,000 people in Russia. If a quarter of this number will protect the Motherland with weapons in their hands, nothing bad will come of it.
  4. Carelessness (or intent?) of the Ministry of Finance officers, who included Cyprus, Gibraltar and the BVI into the list of unfriendly jurisdictions, hit Russian economy more than any sanctions, since up to 90% of Russian economy is structured in these very jurisdictions;
  5. Sanctions hits on the economy and the need to rebuild supply chains led to the one to three months imbalance of consumer goods distribution, from six months to two years of industrial goods distribution;
  6. Sanctions and panic attacks on the financial system led to a fall in mortgages by 60% and real estate sales by 40% during the first six months of the war. There was a high risk of an explosion of a "mortgage bubble" as well as the risk of bankruptcy in the construction sector. The situation has stabilized by the end of the first year of the war. In 2022, according to Frank RG, the volume of mortgage loans issued amounted to 1.3 million loans for 4.9 trillion rubles total, which was only 16% less than in 2021. In December 2022, another record for issued mortgage loans was fixed banks issued 177 thousand loans for 703 billion rubles in total, which is 48% more than in November 2022 and 8% more than during the same period last year.7
  7. The loss of three Nord Stream lines, taking into account Germany's contractual obligations, will result in a loss of about $10 billion.
  8. The cost of restoring Donbass region from the Russian budget amounts to approximately $2 billion.8

Positive result

  1. The huge revenues of oil and gas sector of the economy and the budget of Russia because of super-expensive gas and expensive oil will lead to an absolute record in 2022. So far, the forecast for export growth is 20%-25%, and the total amount of exports may well exceed $750 billion in 2022 9, about $600 billion of which will pass officially, and another $120-$150 billion will pass without reporting with payments in cryptocurrency and through sideways. As part of these calculations, there may be trade in Venezuelan oil and oil and gas "cooperation" with Iran and Qatar;
  2. The number of refugees from Ukraine has already exceeded 5,300,000 people 10, which replaces Russians who are mobilized or fighting under contract in the economy by many times;
  3. Import substitution has noticeably intensified, especially in such strategic sectors of economy as energy, communications, aircraft manufacturing, weapons production, computer science, and banking;
  4. Logistic chains that are not connected with really hostile jurisdictions have practically been organized. For example, imports of European goods to Kyrgyzstan grew by 84% and to Armenia by 72%.11
  5. As a response to the sanctions, the actual seizure of companies that actually belong to unfriendly jurisdictions, such as Shell, McDonalds, Society General (Rosbank), Volkswagen, etc. in total amount of $240 billion.12 This is not the first case in Russian history after the outbreak of the war in 1914 in imperial Russia, real estate was also seized from foreigners.13
  6. The share of Russian companies in the Russian economy, according to some estimates, has grown from 50% to 80%.
  7. Russian corporations and wealthy Russians cut down the investments in Europe and even began to withdraw money to Russia. At the beginning of 2023, investments in the Russian economy from structures that had already fallen or were preparing to fall under sanctions became noticeable.

Balance

The negative result was less significant than expected, and is almost completely formed up. The positive result in the economic aspect has already exceeded it many times over and will continue to grow significantly as the war "lengthens".

Internal policy aspect

Negative result

  1. The dissatisfaction of the majority of the population with the very fact of mobilization and the sharp dissatisfaction with the absurd level of idiocy and carelessness of a number of local military commissars;
  2. The sharp dissatisfaction of the majority of the population with the retreat of Russian troops in the Kharkiv region and Kherson, "non-striking" the enemys headquarters, leadership, communications and strategic, primarily oil and gas, infrastructure 14 15 16;
  3. Huge dissatisfaction among the Russian Federation Armed Forces and the National Guard with insufficient supply of uniforms, food, medicines, and even ammunition, and most importantly, with completely ignorant command;
  4. Huge dissatisfaction of 95% of the Russian population with the lack of ideology and clear position of the state's leadership on the conduct of the war, when the most powerful Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are allegedly unable to defeat the very weak Armed Forces of Ukraine 17;
  5. Some of officials and "businessmen" close to state began to switch sides (towards the United States and NATO) for the promise of the opportunity to regain control of 60%-70% of the previously "withdrawn to the West" funds;
  6. Ideological indoctrination and recruitment of "draft runners" with a total number of up to 100,000 people is carried out on the territories of Georgia and Armenia in order to create both a "fifth column" and direct agents of foreign intelligence services;
  7. Further sharp separation of family ties between Russians and Ukrainians;
  8. Consolidation of western and central Ukraine inhabitants under anti-Russian and Nazi slogans.

Positive results

  1. Consolidation of Russians under pro-Russian and anti-Nazi slogans, a sharp drop in the ideas of separatism.
  2. Certain growth of pro-Russian sentiments after the accession of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions to the Russian Federation.
  3. A sharp decline in the western influence:
    1. Rejection of the Bologna system of education;
    2. The number of liberals has left the country: Chubais, Yavlinsky, intellectuals of liberal propaganda, such as the leadership of Ekho Moskvy, Meduza and other media resources.
    3. Other traitors to the Russian ideology have left the country as well:
      1. The actors Galkin, Pugacheva, Urgant, Khamatova, Yarmolnik, Slepakov and others;
      2. Businessmen-oligarchs Prokhorov, Tinkov, Volozh, Milner, etc.;
      3. A small part of the technical intellectuals, including a number of junior workers of IT field;
      4. "Draft-runners".
      None of them can now count on a positive attitude neither from the state, nor from the majority of the population.
      As the "great Ukrainian politician" Klitschko said: They painted themselves in the colors they painted themselves with.
  4. The economic betrayal of the West in relation to the Russian businessmen who trusted them became clear. The most obvious example of this betrayal was provided by Friedman and Aven. Even Tinkov and Chichvarkin had their money blocked!18 A very positive role was played by the decision of the District of Columbia court, which stated Friedman and Aven, who decided to sue with the State Department structure of the NPO Center for Public Inegrity right in Washington, as those who achieved their influence through management and manipulation under the rules of lawlessness and corruption in the Russian economy and participants in the transit of Colombian cocaine.19 20
  5. The officials who kept their fortunes in the West became "half-beggars" their fortunes in Russia (houses, apartments, cars, a little cash) remained, but 95% of offshore savings in cash in Western banks or in the form of real estate in the West has actually disappeared. Therefore, those who want to remain in public service for a longer time have become economically much more patriotic, and there is a serious hope for a transition from negative to positive political corruption.

Balance

The positive result in the internal policy aspect is almost equal to the negative. At the same time, the situation is becoming worse due to the lack of ideology, define to the population goals of the war, and to the readiness for treason by the bureaucracy.

Also, the situation could become dramatically worse with the annunciation of the second wave of mobilization, loss of significant territories or massive drone strikes on large Russian cities at a considerable distance from the Ukrainian border.

Geopolitical aspect

Negative result

Almost none. Numerous economic sanctions had no negative geopolitical impact on Russia.

Positive results

  1. Putin has managed to create a collective "Anti-West", consisted of China, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Venezuela, Iran, Turkey (transit) in the energy sector, and of the vast majority of countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America in other areas. Even Mexico included! Stable political and economic ties for the coming decades are being formed.
  2. A negotiated coup in favor of the pro-Russian Xi Jinping was managed to carry out in China,21 against the background of a 29% increase in trade turnover to a record of $190 billion (deliveries from China amounted to $76 billion, from Russia to $114 billion) 22.
  3. The political significance of England, Russia's eternal geopolitical enemy, has drastically declined due to the death of Elizabeth II.
  4. It is very important to note that the BRICS GDP, where the role of the military leader is assigned to Russia, has surpassed the G7 GDP, where the United States plays a similar role.23 24
  5. The most economically affected by the "Ukrainian war" countries are precisely the US allies in NATO and the G7 Germany, Italy, England, Japan, South Korea.25
  6. Meanwhile, a number of "fragile satellites" of France in Africa reoriented towards Russia. The "African Federal District" is starting to form its shape.
  7. The war prolongation is beneficial to all producers of risen in price hydrocarbons, including the OPEC+ bloc, including Russia, Qatar, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia, by about $1 trillion. It is nonetheless profitable for the top 50 largest fuel and energy corporations in the West in the very same amount.26 27
  8. The matching of interests of the United States and Russia during the war, due to the agreed reduction of regional security, increases world security with a reduction in the risk of a global nuclear conflict.28 29 30
  9. Germany, ruined by high energy prices, together with its Eastern European satellites, will sooner or later be forced to change the vector of political development to an economic union with Russia.

Balance

The positive result in the geopolitical aspect is huge. There has never been anything like it in world history. For the first time, Russia has become a geopolitical player of the highest world rank.

Total balance

The main "benefits" of Russia are in geopolitics, military and economic aspects. They are very significant and quite "worth" the warfare.

At the same time, in the domestic political aspect, Russia's balance is now very shaky and can be violated at any moment. Such an undesirable development of events, with insufficient attention to them from the state, may well lead to a critical result.




11.03.2023





(1) www.rbc.ru/economics/01/02/2023/

(2) President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said that his Russian colleague Vladimir Putin "has stopped all coronaviruses in the world".
www.vesti.ru/article/2703233

(3) dzen.ru/a/Y90oMVeUuQp195n1

(4) www.rbc.ru/society/12/06/2021/

(5) bloknot.ru/v-mire/cnn-podelilsya-danny-mi-ukrainskogo-genshtaba-o-poteryah-vsu...

(6) tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/16064645

(7) frankrg.com/110643

(8) rtvi.com/stories/rashody-na-vosstanovlenie-donbassa-v-rossijskom-byudzhete...

(9) digital.gov.ru/ru/events/42702/

(10) iz.ru/1472836/2023-02-20/bolee-53-mln-bezhentcev-s-ukrainy-i-iz-donbassa...

(11) t.me/s/bolecon?before=3155

(12) forbes.ru/biznes/479159-eksperty-ocenili-v-240-mlrd-poteri-resivsego-pokinut-rossiu-inostrannogo-biznesa

(13) realty.rbc.ru/news/5e6cfa889a79472edab2dc46

(14) en.gribov.ru/gazoprovodi_i_lbs.html

(15) bragazeta.ru/news/2023/02/10/oleg-carev-obyasnil-benzinovoe-izobilie-na-ukraine...

(16) argumenti.ru/society/2023/03/818169

(17) en.gribov.ru/why_we_lost_herson.html

(18) rbc.ru/politics/30/03/2022/624463a49a79476e9b374896

(19) t.me/kremlinprachka/23484

(20) ecf.dcd.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/show_public_doc?2000cv2208-148

(21) www.gribov.ru/who_have_profit_from_SI_win.html

(22) vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2023/01/18/959445

(23) t.me/citizen_opinion/6260

(24) en.gribov.ru/The_ratio_of_forces_of_the_opposing_groups_Russia_USA.html

(25) en.gribov.ru/who_is_opponent.html

(26) en.gribov.ru/The_ratio_of_forces_of_the_opposing_groups_Russia_USA.html

(27) t.me/s/ravenstvomedia?before=165#

(28) www.gribov.ru/mnogopolyarniy_mir.html

(29) www.gribov.ru/otkuda_finansiruyut_zarplaty_voyuyuschih_na_ukraine.html

(30) www.gribov.ru/year_of_ukrainian_war_goals.html





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