What should the world elites do with Turkey?

As mentioned in earlier articles ¹, there are four of the largest and most aggressive economic players in the world at the moment:

US military-industrial complex,
US hydrocarbon business (“Seven Sisters”),
US financial sector ² end
Russia (weapons and hydrocarbons).

How can these players increase their income, taking advantage of the unstable political situation in Turkey?

To increase their income, it would be logical to increase instability, turning it into open rebellion in case of Erdogan's victory. It is easy to achieve this by directly financing the opposition, led by people from the Turkish financial sector, which has always taken a pro-American position. An amount of several billion dollars aimed at destabilizing the political situation is guaranteed to lead to a large-scale rebellion.

An attempt to suppress the rebellion (forcible power seizure or retention) by Erdogan with the help of special services can have either a positive effect in case of quick neutralization of the conspirators’ leadership, or it can lead to a significant escalation of the rebellion if the conspirators go underground using American communication Internet space systems and/or support with part of the army support.

With the rebellion growth, Erdogan will have no other choice but to impose martial law. And in order to legalize such a decision, and also aiming the consolidation of population and army, he will have to start a “small victorious war”. But who should he fight?

Fighting the Syrian-American Kurds at this point would be a double-edged sword because then the Turkish Kurds living in southeastern Turkey could take the side of the enemy.
A war with Armenia is unrealistic, since Russian troops are stationed in Armenia.
Same with Asad’s Syria.
A war with Iraq is unrealistic, since American troops are stationed in Iraq.
A war with allied Iran makes no political or economic sense.
The war with Bulgaria also does not bring any significant benefits.

Only Greece remains.

Greece is the primordial enemy for Turkey, the memory of the Turkish-Greek war of a hundred years ago being the basis of Turkish patriotic education. The war with Greece will obviously consolidate up to 90% of the Turkish population, and will also rally both the people and the army around absolutely any leader. From an economic point of view, Turkey has significant disputes with Greece over the oil and gas regions of the Mediterranean. And from a geopolitical point of view, Turkey needs to conquer a number of Greek islands that are too dangerously close to the Turkish coast.

But Turkey, as well as Greece, has almost the same American weaponry. And while tanks and artillery may differ, aircraft and military electronics are almost identical. This is where the “fork of decisions”, now fashionably called the “bifurcation point”, lies.

If NATO allows two NATO members to freely fight each other with American weapons, then the US military-industrial complex will earn a little on the weapons supply to both sides. But the more militant Turks will then quickly win and strengthen their military presence along the South Stream line, which even in the medium term will lead to a decrease in gas, and hence, oil prices. And here the interests of the elites become visible.

The US military-industrial complex does not need a Turkish blitzkrieg, they prefer a long war. And military, especially navy equipment (aircraft carriers, frigates, submarines, underwater drones, anti-ship missiles) could be tested in real combat conditions, which is not the case in the Russia-Ukraine land war, also weapons supplies could be long-term and large-scale.

The US hydrocarbon business also does not want Turkey's “quick victorious war”, for, as mentioned above, it will lead to a reduction in gas, and hence, oil prices, in the medium term. It would be beneficial for this player if Greece seizes the Turkish gas “hub” or, at least, seriously threatens it. To make it possible, it is necessary that Greece, possibly with the support of Bulgaria, would make significant progress in the European part of Turkey, including the Dardanelles region. And the war would last for several years.

The US financial sector would benefit from both the flow of Turkish and Greek-Bulgarian capital from the war zone to the “calm” US, and the opportunity to play on unstable exchange rates and economic indices for a continuous time, allowing both sides achieve local victories.

Such events will lead to the American military-industrial complex, hydrocarbon and financial sectors income increase by several trillion dollars in the perspective of only two or three years. With such forecast, allocating several billion dollars to foment a rebellion in Turkey is an absolutely logical decision for the American elites.

Therefore, it can be predicted with high probability that American military equipment, and especially American military electronics, will stop working in Turkey during the war. Most likely, the Americans will find some diplomatic reason such as “leakage of secret American military technologies to Russia” and officially “disconnect” Turkey from NATO. First of all, blocking American military equipment and electronics.

Such an action by the United States will lead to crushing losses for Turkey in the first stage of the war. Turkey will lose up to 80% of its Navy, all its islands, Northern Cyprus, the vast majority of its European territory almost as far as to Istanbul borders, and most likely the entire province of Izmir. Most of the Turkish ports will be significantly damaged, shipping in the Mediterranean for Turkish ships will be blocked. Since the Greek army is weak on land, it is unlikely to be able to invade deep into Turkish territory from coast without serious support from mercenaries and pseudo-volunteers. On the other hand, the Syrian-American Kurds will be able to seriously push the Turkish troops in southern Turkey and, very likely, capture Diyarbakir.

With such a development, Erdogan will simply have no choice but to turn to Russia and will receive, like a hundred years ago, weapons and military advisers. Most likely PMC “Wagner” with a number of “volunteer battalions” will also be “delegated” to Turkey.

With the help of Russian weapons and following the instructions of the Russian General Staff, Erdogan will be able to reconquer Turkish territories in a few years. It won't be achieved quickly. Until Russian weapons reach Turkey, until the Turks are trained to use it, until they master new technologies... at least two to three years will pass.

Is it beneficial for Russia?

The Russian military-industrial complex will get a large arms market and sell Turkey a huge number of weapons, ranging from anti-ship missiles to hundreds of fighters.

The Russian hydrocarbon sector will be able to export hydrocarbons all over the world at a much higher price for several years, also cutting off Middle Eastern and Central Asian hydrocarbon suppliers from land transport routes to Europe.

Russia will get its own military base on the “straits”, which will provide almost free access to the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, and in case of the development of hostilities to the territory of Bulgaria and Romania, there will also be a prospect of declaring the Black Sea an inland sea of the Russian-Turkish union.

Geopolitically, Turkey will become a particularly close ally to Russia, almost at the Belarus level, which will lead to a very close rapprochement and, probably, the annexation of the whole Caucasus, Central Asia, possibly Syria, and in future, the whole Kurdistan by this union.

The potential benefits to Russia are so great that the scenario of a prolonged Turkish-Greek war with a shutdown of Turkish military electronics is extremely probable.

21.05.2023

Erdogan's press secretary Ibrahim Kalin has become the new head of Turkey's National Intelligence Organization.

He defended his doctoral dissertation at George Washington University, lectured at Georgetown University, was awarded the Ukrainian Order of Merit, III degree (August 22, 2020, Ukraine) — for a significant personal contribution to strengthening the international authority of Ukraine, the development of interstate cooperation, and fruitful social activities.³

New Vice President — Cevdet Yilmaz (Vice Chairman of the Justice and Development Party) — Graduate of the University of Denver ⁴.

New Minister of Foreign Affairs — Hakan Fidan (formerly head of National Intelligence) — Master of the University of Maryland, bordering the city of Washington ⁵.

New Minister of Justice — Yilmaz Tunç — Between 1992 and 1994, he studied at the Faculty of International Relations at the University of Denver ⁶.

New Minister of Treasury and Finance — Mehmet Simsek — Ethnic Kurd, worked at the American Embassy in Ankara, in the London branch of Merril Lynch ⁷.

⁽¹⁾ http://en.gribov.ru/Who_benefits_from_Xi_Jinping_victory_at_the_20_CCP_Congress.html

⁽²⁾ According to a number of analysts, including the financial sector of Russia

⁽³⁾ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%B0brahim_Kal%C4%B1n

⁽⁴⁾ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cevdet_Yilmaz

⁽⁵⁾ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hakan_Fidan

⁽⁶⁾ https://dzen.ru/a/ZHxJkRMDahQm5yhW

⁽⁷⁾ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mehmet_Simsek

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